Braindrizzling In Review

Every year following the NFL draft, all the little Mel Kipers hurl plaudits and bric-a-brats at the various organizations for their picks. It always rankles me that they never review their own track record so we can determine whether their opinions are wheat or chaff. My guess is that they are no better at evaluating talent than the average GM. They're just as likely, I'd bet, to extol Ryan Leaf and whiff on Demarcus Ware as is the NFL braintrust.

Which reminds us that it's time for a Braindrizzling Year In Review, where we emancipate the year's statements from the archives and examine them in the light of hindsight. Although there are few actual predictions in this blog, there's plenty of gazing into crystal balls. Let's see.

YER OUT!
There were a couple of mis-interpretations over the course of 131 posts. The worst won't make the list. That would be the post in which I slammed the baseball writers for bestowing a Gold Glove on Derek Jeter. E-Scribe! The players and managers vote for that one. Mea culpa...and theirs too.

Our Better Angels -- In a series on interesting teams in 2010, I posited that the Angles would outplay the sabermetric forecasts of a sub-.500 season because of Mike Scioscia's magic touch and Arte Moreno's deep pockets. Wrong! I forgot to anticipate Kendry Morales's broken leg or the demise of the back end of the rotation. 80-82 is sub-.500, bub.

Boarding the D-train -- Dontrelle Willis tamed the walk tiger in his first start, prompting me to gush about his future. Bzzzzt! Now that it's his past, we see he has no more future in the Major Leagues. Willis made nine starts for Detroit in which he walked 29 and fanned 33 in 43 innings with a 4.98 ERA. After they kicked him to the curb, the desperate D-backs endured six starts of  a 6.85 ERA with a 14/27 K/BB ratio. I wish Dontrelle a lovely career as a baseball announcer.

All We Have To Fear Is... -- The Yankees themselves! I whined about the inevitability of a Yankees- Phillies World Series. Thhhppp! To be fair, I didn't really believe it so much as fear it. Nothing is inevitable in baseball playoffs, especially when AJ Burnett is starting.

STEEE-RIKE!
Some ideas are not quite either wrong or right. These were foul balls with two strikes.

Oye Como Va -- After three starts, Johan Santana looked to me like, well, the Johan Santana he'll never be again. Though his stats didn't reflect improvement, they were listing in the direction of one bad inning. I noted his 18 K in 18 innings and foresaw another Cy-worthy year. Hmm. He's no Roy Halladay, but unless your team plays near a Liberty Bell, you'd covet a guy who throws 199 innings at a 2.98 ERA, even in a pitcher's park. Santana was worth 5.6 wins against a replacement pitcher. That's still swell.

The Home of the Braves -- In another post on intriguing teams, I observed that Atlanta was a mile wide and an inch deep. With the breakout seasons of Jayson Heyward, Omar Infante and Martin Prado, the lineup turned out wider and deeper than I expected. The Nakahomas finished out of the tournament, as I'd anticipated, but at 91-71, better than I'd envisioned.

HITS
With all due disrespect, there were a lot of these. Behold.

Traded to His Family -- Twice I begged Ken Griffey, Jr. to retire lest he resemble Muhammad Ali fighting Larry Holmes. Did he listen? Well, yes, eventually. But not before slugging .184/.250/.204 in 108 painful at-bats and then falling asleep mid-game.

Hitting the Mark -- Mark Reynolds remains for me the most fascinating player in baseball. Reynolds' spectacular '09 was built on an unsustainable BABIP of .423. I mentioned that he's a great player if he bats .260, but that's a tall order for a guy who fans one-third of the time. Sure enough, despite smacking 32 homers and walking 83 times, he was worth just nine runs against replacement value to Arizona because of a .198 batting average.

Beat the Mets -- I said the Mets' stars and scrubs lineup would be a train wreck. Do I get a cookie?

Too Much of a Good Thing is...Wonderful -- New England fans were hankering for a trade as valuable assets Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell collected splinters. I noted that the rest of the infield was aging, fixing to get injured and in need of backup. I didn't realize the team would hit its medical deductible in the first month, but they surely had to appreciate having Tek and Lowell to fill in.

SIERA MIST -- Raise a glass to the seamheads at Baseball Prospectus, whose advanced pitching metrics noted that 90% of Ubaldo Jimenez's 13-1, 1.15 start was half luck. Unusually good strand rates, BABIP, relief help and run support all suggested that Jimenez was combining good -- not great -- pitching with extraordinary luck, a volatile cocktail. After brewing a 15-1, 2.20 first half, UJ spilled his drink in the second, and the result was 4-7, 3.80. His 19-8, 2.88 final line didn't attract a single Cy Young vote. I get the credit for reporting it, but they did all the work.

THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT! THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT!
There were two outright predictions here and they both paid off big. Literally.

I'm Going To Disney Land -- Last January, I told you to put money on the "under" in the Super Bowl. In fact, I told you to put money on the double-under. I told my bookie the same thing. My reasoning was the over/under of 57 required the game to be a track meet. But football analysts, savants though they are, have all the predictive ability of hurricane forecasters. With the double-under set at 49, the Saints downed the Colts 31-17. Cha-ching!

Oh, Votto Beautiful Morning -- Here is the entire March 26 post.

The winner of this year's Ben Zobrist Award for the best player who came out of nowhere will be Joey Votto. This is a trick selection. Just because you're not familiar with him doesn't mean the big-swinging, 27-year-old lefty isn't already an accomplished Major League hitter.

The Reds' first baseman, Votto has been pounding Major League pitching for two years and a coffee break. His .310/.388/.536 resume may be (Great American) Ballpark-aided, but 53 homers and 77 doubles in a thousand at-bats is hard to argue with.

Votto enters his third full season ready to explode. With a couple of full campaigns under his belt, with an increasing walk rate and with an improving team around him, the big Canadian is channeling Justin Morneau in the Queen City. His .414 OBP in an injury-trimmed season last year suggests a full year of Votto could catapult him into the MVP discussion in '10.

If that happens, you'll hear of him. And you'll wonder, where did this guy come from? Well, a pretty good place.

Oh, you heard of him all right. So did the MVP voters. Don't say I didn't warn you.

SO...
That's a pretty good batting average, even in a hitter's park, against a weak schedule, with a high BABIP and a low walk rate. I hope to score as well in '11.

I wish you a new decade of hanging curves with the bases juiced. Only two months until pitchers and catchers report.
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