A trade this week between the woebegone Kansas City Royals and the woebegetting Milwaukee Brewers has baseball economics' fingerprints all over it. Both teams gave themselves a chance to get better, but only within the confines of an economic system that bequeaths MLB's two smallest markets limited opportunities.
First, some context. KC is the 29th largest metro area in the nation, just behind Orlando and San Antonio, with 2.07 million people. Milwaukee is 39th, with 1.56 million souls, fewer than the Nashville, Providence, Virginia Beach and Austin metro areas. The Milwaukee market fits neatly into the New York market 12 times with enough people left over to fill the city limits of Pittsburgh. That doesn't even account for the encroachment of the neighboring Chicago market that traditionally represented southern Wisconsin fans.
So when the biggest bopping Brewer, Prince Fielder, fixes his sights on one of those juicy nine-figure contracts, Milwaukee brass can't be faulted for considering its options and placing its chips on "win now, while he's still here."
There is no "win now" for the feckless Missouri franchise and there hasn't been any "win then" since 1989. The Royals have notched at least 90 losses in 10 of the last 14 years, interrupted in part by the moral victory of 1998's 72-89 mark. For GM Dayton Moore, the only possible route to relevance is rolling simultaneous sevens with his minor league prospects. Even with Zack Greinke as their ace, the Royals have won just 42.6% of their games the last three years, and his deal is up after next season. Combine that track record with a plastic, 40-year-old home park built five miles into the woods and it's a wonder anyone pays to see their games.
That's why we might want to refrain from slapping our heads when the Royals announce they've filled their outfield gaps with Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera and 162 bottles of aspirin. While the Red Sox are offering Saturday's Mega Lotto Jackpot for Carol Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, Kansas City has just $3.75 million to spend, and a pair of .715 OPS outfielders is all that buys.
Which brings us to the confluence of the Win Now and Roll the Dice rivers. The Brewers considered their team-killing pitching and the closing-window of low-cost performance from offensive stars Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks and decided to chuck the farm system for two shots at a flag. In the NL Central, where the Cards have run out of money after paying Pujols and Holliday; where the Cubs are busy climbing out of a scillion-dollar bad-contract hole; and where the Reds -- the Reds! -- wore the 2010 crown; it's a reasonable gamble.
The Royals, meanwhile, realize that they can come in last without their Cy Young hurler as well as with him, so why not flip him to further stock the farm. Hence, KC's decision to flip Greinke and incumbent shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for four touted young guys. The deal is one of two recent Milwaukee blockbusters yielding Shaun Marcum and Zack Grienke to join Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf in the suddenly formidable Brewer rotation.
It's a low percentage move for Kansas City, but the percentage was zero before the trade. Likewise, there'll be hell to pay for the Brewers in 2013, assuming Fielder bolts after this season and Greinke's bill comes due without any farm-grown beef to feed the big club. In the meantime, the NL Central is there for the taking and the Beer Kings are making their claim.
Maybe it's small ball compared to the giant stakes among the Phils, Saux, Yanks and their ilk, but it's life for the mice of baseball who must scamper as best they can among the elephants.
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