The I-95 Balance of Power

Assuming Cliff Lee chooses lucre over loyalty -- and why else hire Scott Boras and drag on negotiations for a month? -- he'll bring seven years of his other-worldly command to the Big Apple, not the Big D. 

Except the sabermetric websites are burning up the ether about the likelihood that Lee's control falls off the Cliff before the pinstripes stop paying him $25 million annually, perhaps long before. K/BB ratios of 10/1, which Lee delivered in 2010, have notoriously short half-lives. Indeed, just three years ago, Lee fanned fewer than two batters for each free pass he issued, leading to a 6.29 ERA and a 5-8 record for Cleveland. Perhaps more than any other pitcher, Lee's ability to retire batters is dependent on his ability to paint the corners on demand.

Knowing that he might deliver four champion-grade seasons before returning to earth for the last $75 million of his contract might perfectly satisfy the brass in the Bronx, where the revenue streams run richer with gold each year. In Arlington, though, that's $75-million the club won't have to spend on, say, an entire infield, including the catcher. That kind of weight can sink a franchise burdened with spending limits, such as, well, everyone but the Yankees.

So assuming Lee leaves Texas and heads north, and considering the other significant off-season moves so far, a familiar phenomenon is shaping up. Other than Chicago, where the White Sox muscled up with Adam Dunn, the flow of talent has almost exclusively migrated northeast. The Yankees shored up their single largest weakness by acquiring Lee, the Red Sox added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the returns of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Cameron, and the rest of baseball serves, to some degree or another, as their minor leagues. We can only guess which new superstar -- Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, Felix Hernandez -- is simply auditioning for the big spenders.

Looking ahead to 2011, fans in San Diego, Texas, San Francisco, and Minnesota might want to temper their expectations. The Padres dealt away 78% of their team VORP (value over replacement player; i.e., how much players are worth on offense compared to AAA replacements at their positions. This is another way of saying that San Diego almost made the playoffs in 2010 with a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and the Brady Bunch kids. In 2011, it looks like Florence Henderson will be suiting up too.)

The Evil Empire will have sucked the life-giving force from the Rangers, whose center-fielder will have to play in '11 without the magic pixie dust that transformed him into an MVP in '10. The Twins get back Justin Morneau, which seems to be the kiss of death for them, and the Giants have already won their once-every-56-years flag.

And, of course, there's St. Petersburg. The imbalance of power has swung even more forcefully to the AL Beasts in NY and Boston and it's hitting the Rays squarely in the butt. The Rise and Fall of the Tampa Bay Empire will cover three years. Without any blockbuster free agent pickups left for bidding we have a pretty good sense how things are shaping up.

Plus, the Yankees now have the sexiest mascot in the majors.

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