Preview Review

It's a beautiful time of year, when every publication this side of The Economist runs its baseball preview. (The editors of that august journal might find it less depressing these days to follow suit.) I've been gobbling them up and watching the needle on the Ignorance Meter pin the red end.

Take this from the Associated Press on the Cincinnati Reds:
"If Aaron Harang can bounce back from a down year, the rotation can be one of the league's best."

Well, I suppose it could, assuming a litany of other unlikely scenarios occurs contemporaneously. Harang would have to bounce back from a down year while at the same time Edinson Volquez would again have to pitch his brains out, Johnny Cueto would have to improve on his 4.81 ERA and someone would have to fill the fourth and fifth slots, and among the current someones is Josh Fogg, whose ERA of 7.58 from last season looks more like a good pitcher's pH.

In other words, if Mt. Everest fell down, K2 could be the world's highest peak. Don't hold your breath.

Here's another about the Phillies: "Raul Ibanez agreed to a $31.5 million, three-year contract to replace Pat Burrel in left field, making Philadelphia's already dangerous lineup even deeper. Ibanez is one of five outfielders to drive in at least 100 runs in each of the past three seasons."

By relying on the wrong metric, the AP has determined that bronze is more valuable than silver. Raul Ibanez has an .845 OPS over the last three years, Pat Burrel, .889. Raul Ibanez is 37, with an expiration date of about 39. Pat Burrel is 33. The Phillies got worse, not better, by signing Ibanez, and they paid a premium to do so. Burrel inked a two-year deal worth $2 million-a-year less.

Finally, there's this bit of chuckle inducement: "Houston got a boost in spring training when 13-time Gold Glove catcher Ivan Rodriguez agreed to a $1.5 million contract." I'm splitting hairs here, because Pudge is undoubtedly better than the black hole that was sucking matter into the backstop position before him. But the 'Stros are so lacking in talent after Berkman, Lee and Oswalt it's hard to see how the wretched refuse of Ivan Rodriguez's career, not to mention his AARP membership, can possibly help this sorry ship sail. More than a catcher, the Astros need an overhaul.