A Net Loss In the Knowledge Column

At this late moment in spring training, the Atlanta Braves (17-8) lead the Milwaukee Brewers (14-9) by two games in the exhibition season standings. I know this is utterly irrelevant, but bear with me.

Were this the regular season, and the two teams played in the same division, you can count on the Brewers' announcers (not to pick on them; I'm using them as an example) to note that they're only one game behind in the loss column.

That there would remain 135 games in the season aside, the rampant use of this datum reveals yet more ignorance on the part of many baseball observers. The use of "loss column" measurement is a late-season insight. Using it anytime other than the last 20 games is a perversion of this insight, like pondering the effect of a basketball player's weakness in transition on his performance at the foul line.

The reason the loss gap matters late in the season is that the trailing team can't make up defeats. Let's say your nine, the Macon Whoopie (82-70), trail the Buffalo Chips (87-69) by three games. If the Whoopie get hot, they only need Buffalo to lose once more in order to catch them. They can erase the Chips' five win advantage on their own.

Conversely, the Crawford Bushes' (82-74) three-game deficit to the East Wenatchee Apples (83-69) is much more dire because they're five behind in the loss column. The Washington contingent would have to drop five of their last 10 games for the Texas side to have any chance, no matter how hot they get.

With 60 games left in the season, parsing the gap this finely leaves you less -- not more -- informed. It's the reason our two-year election campaign leaves voters less informed about the candidates than if they just had six weeks to gather the few key pieces of information they need to make an intelligent decision. This is the underpinning of Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink, which has many applications to sports.

All this will be good to keep in mind after Opening Day, when a rival team wins before yours plays. You'll be in the middle of the division standings, but tied in the loss column.