Attention Met Fans: Is Wright Best Ever?

I commend to your attention, if you live and die with the ballers in Flushing, this article by Alex Remington and published by the excellent site Fangraphs. 

On the occasion of David Wright's ascension to alltime Met RBI king, Remington notes that Wright was already the greatest Met position player of all time. (Tom Seaver, of course, is the best player ever and will be for a long time. As Remington also points out, the history of the team is thick with pitchers but not so much with hitters.)

I've co-opted this graph to support Remington's case. It shows that while Hall of Famers have passed through, Wright's time as a Met is first for overall value as a Met.

Name	G	PA	HR	RBI	SB	triple slash		Fld	BsR	WAR
David Wright	1121	4849	186	735	151	.301/.381/.508		-26.6	7.5	40.2
Darryl Strawberry	1103	4549	252	733	191	.263/.359/.520		7		36.6
Jose Reyes	1050	4840	81	423	370	.292/.341/.441		15.4	18.5	33.4
Carlos Beltran	839	3640	149	559	100	.280/.369/.500		12.4	17.3	30.9
Edgardo Alfonzo	1075	4449	120	538	45	.292/.367/.445		44.9		30.7
Mike Piazza	970	3941	220	655	7	.296/.373/.542		-48.9	-7.2	30.2
Keith Hernandez	875	3684	80	468	17	.297/.387/.429		52		27.0
Howard Johnson	1149	4591	192	629	202	.251/.341/.459		-81		24.0

 

WAR=Wins Against Replacement

The fielding numbers are calculated in runs, not in wins, so Piazza loses about five wins, not 49, for his ineptitude as a backstop. Also remember that WAR is adjusted for position. Wright's hitting prowess is remarkable compared to other hot cornermen while Hernandez lacked the punch of most first basemen and Straw was being measured against other corner outfielders.

Your mileage may vary when it comes to who the greatest everyday Met has been, but if he stays with the team, by next year David Wright should be #1 alltime in hits, walks, doubles, runs, RBIs and batting average (for players with more than 500 at bats) as a Met.

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Playoffs! Playoffs?

Finally, Still, college football is going to have a playoff starting in 2014. 

The braying of the uninformed aside, college football has had a playoff for a decade. It's a one-game playoff between the top two teams, as determined by the worst method in the world except for all the other methods.

(The method most people want used is the one in which they personally get to choose the two teams.)
 
The discussion now on the table involves four teams rather than two, which maintains the sanctity of the championship series while preserving the urgency of the season. It may, however, sap yet more relevance from the bowl games, particularly those that don't get to host a championship series game. Imagine the spectacular pyre of apathy facing, say, the Sugar Bowl, as it hosts two teams not involved in the playoffs.

Another seductive element under consideration is the removal of automatic qualifiers to the BCS bowls, particularly inasmuch as the conferences have all the coherence and permanence of Dennis Rodman's hairdo. Consider:

• The Big East includes teams in Houston and Dallas. 
• The Big Ten has 12 teams, but can't become the Big 12, because that's the name of another conference, which has 10 teams. 
• The Atlantic Coast includes Pittsburgh, 366 miles from the coast. 
• The Atlantic 10 includes a team from St. Louis, 950 miles from the Atlantic.
• Conference USA stretches from the NC coast to the Arizona border. 
• New Jersey Tech plays in the Great West conference. 
• The Southeast Conference will next year play in Columbia, Missouri, which is neither south nor east.

No wonder college athletes don't know anything: even the presidents of their schools are confused. Despite that, it appears we'll soon have an improved (and more lucrative, imagine that!) champion determinant in college football that won't undermine the weekly excitement of the regular season.
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That's Some Good Pitching . . . Not!

Clinging to a 3-2 lead yesterday, Atlanta handed the ball to the dynamic relief duo of Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrell to nail down the eighth and ninth innings. 

The pair faced six Diamondback batters and whiffed them all. That's some good pitching.

In Seattle, White Sox starter Phil Humber faced 27 Mariners and retired every last one of them. (Does it count as a perfect game if it's the Mariners? It's not like they have any Major Leaguers in their lineup.) That's some good pitching.

In Boston, starting moundsman Felix Doubront fanned seven Yankees while limiting them to one run in six innings en route to a 9-1 lead. That's some good pitching.

Over the next 20 batters, five relievers combined to set the lead ablaze. They walked five batters, and relinquished five singles, four doubles and two home runs. (There was one error.) Fourteen runs crossed the plate. They managed to record five outs, two of them on a rocket line-drive double play. That's some good pitching. Not!

The photos of Vicente Padilla, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Alfredo Aceves and Justin Thomas would be hanging in Post Offices today, if Post Offices still existed. (Or perhaps they are hanging there, but who would actually know? It's possible that Post Offices have gone on to bat cleanup for Seattle, which is to say they exist in some metaphysical sense, but not in the real world.)

In any case, the bullpen has so far been the undoing of Boston's playoff hopes. It has earned its 8.44 ERA and cost the Red Sox several games, though none as dramatic as yesterday's. Besides taking more opportunities to shut up, this will be Bobby Valentine's top priority if he's going to have success in New England.
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Hey, I'm Just Sayin'

The following falls into the category of "I'm not saying, I'm just saying." It is an argument wholly without merit. In fact, it isn't even an argument.

I'm just saying.

Last season, Ryan Braun hit .332/.397/.597 in a good-hitting home park surrounded by a monster lineup while trying not to embarrass himself in left field.

Matt Kemp hit a nearly-identical .324/.399/.586 in a ravine (no, literally, in a Ravine) surrounded by a lineup of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (we'll say the pitcher was Snow White) while contributing speed and a strong arm to the middle pasture.

The Baseball Writers opted for Braun as MVP because he had better teammates, an age-old and thoroughly-discredited logical process.

Come the off-season, Braun was allegedly caught juicing and won acquittal on a technicality. Kemp impressed by steadfastly refusing to denigrate Braun or the MVP vote and stifling efforts to transfer the MVP to him.

So far in the vindication round, here's the tale of the tape: Braun is scuffling to .245/.316/.388 with one home run. Kemp is at .481/.521/1.000 with eight home runs in 14 games. With less than 1/10th of games played, Kemp leads the league in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases, slugging and OPS.

Even if this did have any bearing on last year, it's not just premature, it's prematurely premature. It's so premature the baby was delivered before it was conceived. 

I'm just saying.

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Bo Ryan Is Not An Idiot

Did you hear Wisconsin basketball coach Bo Ryan's justification for restricting redshirt freshman Jarrod Uthoff's transfer options to "anywhere east of Kazakhstan"?

(He later rescinded most of the restrictions, saying the original list was a negotiating tactic to get the kid to discuss the issue with him.)

Ryan had the nearly unlimited ability to prevent a "student-athlete" from transferring because NCAA rules allow coaches to "protect the program." And so that stipulation is part of the "contract" signed by "student athletes" in the revenue sports before they begin "working." (All the words in quotes are Bo Ryan's, not mine. Except he never used the word "student-athlete.")

Ryan didn't use the word "student-athlete," because he's not a liar. He did use the word "job." Because Bo Ryan also isn't an idiot. He knows that basketball at the University of Wisconsin, as it is at every other BCS school, is about money, not about students. The players have "jobs," not extra-curricular activities. They are employees, not scholars. And he is their boss, whose job security depends on their excellence at their job, which is basketball, not academics.

So when the NCAA makes rules about how "student-athletes" can transfer, the rules protect the teams, not the "students." And when Bo Ryan enforces the rules, he is concerned about the program's bottom line, not the employee's future. Bo Ryan acted rationally given the actual circumstances, as opposed to the fictional circumstances that comprise the NCAA narrative.

Here's the richest part of the story: In 1999, Bo Ryan signed a six-year contract to coach at UW-Milwaukee, which he broke after two seasons to "transfer" to Madison for piles more cash. As I said, Bo Ryan is not an idiot. But anyone who thinks that big time Division I football and basketball are about "student-athletes" is.

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Clay Hensely for the Win

Yesterday, the Phils' Cliff Lee and the Giants' Matt Cain combined to shut out their opponents for 57 outs over 19 innings. Neither got a decision. 

Clay Hensley got the 1-0 win for the Giants in inning 10. He recorded one out.

Suck on that, win-puppets.

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Take the Money and Run

Let's do a thought experiment, like Einstein used to do, but without the Greek letters. Suppose you knew that over the next seven years your unique ability would likely be worth $33 million to your employer. That's life's lottery ticket, wouldn't you say?

If things go right, you could be worth even more -- like $68 million. But if something goes awry, your career will fizzle after the first $900,000 earned.

In other words, it's pretty likely that you'll be able to guarantee that your grandchildren will be rich even if you never work another day in your life. But you're one ACL away from missing out on all of that.

Now suppose your employer comes to you in the middle of your second year, at which point you've earned less than a million dollars, and offers you $25 million over the next five years. There's a very good chance you'd be leaving millions on the table -- up to $43 million.

Would you take the deal?

If you're like me, or Evan Longoria, you sure would. The reason is diminishing marginal utility.

Diminishing marginal utility means the value of a million dollars is immense for the average college professor, plumbing supplies salesman or nurse. It would change most of our lives. But the marginal utility of a million dollars to someone with 20 million already in the bank is significantly smaller.

That $25 million offer catapults you into the "set for life" category just as $33 million or $68 million does. It relieves you of the financial risk of flaming out.

Think about it this way: you probably pay homeowner's insurance knowing in advance that you're unlikely to recoup your premiums over your lifetime. Still, you'd rather pay $100 a month-- an amount you can afford -- rather than risk losing a quarter of a million dollars when a freak hurricane flattens your Ann Arbor home.

Four years ago, the Tampa Bay Rays inked rookie third baseman Evan Longoria to a six-year deal for $17.5 million. (Subsequent team options could make the contract worth $44 million over nine years.) Longoria was ecstatic about the deal then, two weeks into his Major League career.

"Knowing now that I'm pretty much set for life, that's just very assuring to me," he said.

Today, it's the Rays who are thrilled. Even with the dampening effect of arbitration, Longoria would probably have made his $17.5 million by now with a bigger payday ahead for year six. Those three years of options that kick in when Longoria would have qualified for free agency will pay him $26.5 million over three years, a fire sale price for a player worth 24 wins in his first four seasons. In all, the opportunity cost of that contract was somewhere in the vicinity of $32 million for the slugging third baseman.

But suppose Evan, who after all had 50 at bats when all the hands got shaken, hit instead like Eva during his big league career. He'd be back in SoCal today, but he'd be surfing with the dudes on the best dang board in town, thanks to $17.5 million guaranteed. He'd live in a big house and drive whatever car he wants. He'd have done all right.

So what we have, in effect, is a baseball team selling an insurance policy to a young potential star.

We've seen this before, most recently two weeks ago when the Brewers signed Matthew Lucroy to a similar deal. Expect this to become the norm as teams recognize the potential savings and players cash in on the guaranteed riches. And everyone can thank diminishing marginal utility for this latest development.
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Yu and You

Great news for Japan! Yu Darvish won “his much anticipated major league debut in the Rangers’ victory” over Seattle last night, according to the Associated Press.

Please. You had as much to do with that victory as Yu.

Darvish got rocked out of the gate for five runs in the first two innings and ran into trouble again in the sixth before reliever Alexi Ogando and the powerful Texas lineup bailed him out. Down 4-0 thanks to Darvish, the Rangers pasted Mariner starter Hector Noesi  and three relievers for 11 runs. Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Mitch Moreland deserve the credit for going yard and erasing the ill effects of eight hits, four walks, one hit-by-pitch and one wild pitch allowed by a whirling Darvish.

It’s another example of how irrelevant the W is for starting pitchers. Would the Whigs who defend pitching wins like to argue that Darvish pitched to the score when he allowed four runs in the top of the first inning to the worst-hitting team in baseball?

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Breaking Up Not So Hard To Do

With Peyton Manning on the shelf in 2011, the Colts staggered into last place. When Michael Jordan took a hiatus to hack at Minor League pitching, the Bulls barely scraped into the postseason.

Albert Pujols's name will not be in the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup all season. Fans in the Gateway may discover that breaking up wasn't so hard to do.

Replacing a once-in-a-generation talent like Pujols requires some skill at jigsaw puzzles, but it's easier than replacing a medium-talent first-string hockey goalie.

Barring cloning, which Major League Baseball has yet to master, even the greatest players only bat once every nine times. They only play one position on the field. And they don't throw a single pitch. There's a low ceiling on even the mightiest everyday player's value.

Moreover, no one who's not married to Cal Ripken's wife plays everyday, every year. Prince Albert missed 15 games last season, and lest you think that was an anomaly, chronic back and elbow issues aren't traffic violations and nightly bar hopping: they don't tend to subside after age 30.

Even so, Pujols in his worst year posted a .299/.366/.541 line with 37 homers and splendid defense, worth 5.4 wins to the World Series Champions. That's a lot of performance disappearing with one sweep of the pen in Anaheim.

Except that performance is not disappearing: someone will play first base in Pujols's absence. In the case of St. Louis, it's Lance Berkman, who was already on the field regularly, so he's not an offensive addition. But Berkman was in right field, where he probably no longer belongs, costing the Redbirds almost a game compared to the average right fielder.

Most teams would attempt to plug a Pujols-sized chasm with a montage of performers -- platooning, shifting and developing their way to recoup most of the loss. Not so for the Cards; they signed Carlos Beltran, whose 2011 performance in NY and San Francisco was .300/.385/.525 with 22 homers in 142 games, worth 4.4 wins to his teams. Beltran is a center fielder playing right and should be good for at least average performance with the leather. 

Presto, the wins that flew to California during the winter have come home to roost under the Arch.* Theoretically, the return of co-ace Adam Wainwright to the rotation and a full season of World Series hero David Freese at third should have actually portended improvement in eastern Missouri, despite the loss of the best player (chemically-unaided division) since Willie Mays. 

*Details schmetails. Okay, so it's not that simple. We compared Pujols's worst season to one of Beltran's better years, Beltran is older and the statistics suggest he left his outfield defense at the bars of his youth. Still, they won the title with Pujols in that state, so it's hard to argue they needed more from him. Besides, you get the point, and if you don't, go read John Kruk's blog.

Other issues, like injury to Chris Carpenter, may offset some of that; nonetheless, it's pretty astounding that St. Louis can just shrug off Superman's departure. That's baseball though, where the greatest player in the game wins just five of 162 games for you compared to a replacement who doesn't even belong in the league.

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NCAA Scores 4 Out of 50 On Honesty Test

The problem is not that 2012 first-round NFL draft prospect Morris Claiborne couldn't outguess a gerbil on the Wonderlic test. There are several possible explanations for getting a four out of 50, but "he was exhausted from studying calculus" is not one of them.

Claiborne is a genius on the football field and is considered one of the 10 best football players on the planet not yet in the NFL. In order to succeed in his field, he doesn't need to know how to calculate the volume of a prolate spheroid. He doesn't have to know what a prolate spheroid is as long as he can intercept one. He doesn't need to know how to spell prolate spheroid. In fact, Morris Claiborne can make the NFL Hall of Fame without knowing how to spell Morris Claiborne.

What's problematic is that until January, when Claiborne quit school and hired an agent, the NCAA called him a "student athlete." The NCAA endorses a system offering  Morris Claiborne admission to the flagship university of the state of Louisiana when he can't outperform a second-grader on an admissions test. In exchange for three years of brutal bodily self-sacrifice that earned LSU millions of dollars, Claiborne was bequeathed a college education, which is as apt as offering Stephen Hawking a bitchin' pair of Nike Airs.

Morris Claiborne, was in fact, a minor league football player whose only function at LSU was to propel the team to victory and increase its revenue production. The Byzantine NCAA regulations that prevented him from getting paying jobs during school or accepting a free meal from a team benefactor don't change that. The intellectually dishonest TV ads about women's volleyball players and men's fencers graduating and going pro in other careers don't mitigate the foundation of fraud upon which the NCAA is built.

It's hard to imagine that anyone on staff at Morris Claiborne's high school could be unaware of his scholastic ineptitude. Nor could anyone in the LSU athletic department be ignorant of it. Someone, after all, either took Claiborne's SATs for him or somehow rigged the system. (A man who doesn't know the ninth month of the year, can't calculate four times 21, and can't determine whether .8 or .33 is less isn't knocking down an 800 on the SATs without some serious fudging.) And since the scenario is repeated annually with myriad football and basketball players across the nation, the NCAA can hardly be unaware either.

But none of those entities is interested in scholastic aptitude. They are interested in fat profit, the kind people like Morris Claiborne help produce. It's the system that forces Morris Claiborne into college without recompense of any value to him and then blatantly lies about his purpose that is the problem.

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Meet the New Best Pitcher. Same As the Old Best Pitcher

In season previews, I've heard/read several allusions to either Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball.

Please. If a Cy Young makes a pitcher the best in the game, someone explain Randy Jones and Pete Vukovich.

The world's best hurler is not a flamethrower who combusted to a 4.84 ERA three years back.

He's not a hot young southpaw with three years of service in a hitting suppressant park.

The best pitcher in the game doesn't change from year to year. He was the best in the game five years ago and three years ago and still today at 34.

The Majors' best hurler is the essence of consistency who, since 2002, has gone 169-74, 3.19 with a 4-1 K/BB ratio, most of it in the toughest division in baseball.

It's Roy Halladay, and it will be until he relinquishes the crown.  

Now that's no knock on Verlander or Kershaw, either of whom could be ordering a bronze sculpture by the time he hangs up his spikes. Since his faceplant in '08, Verlander has delivered 53-23, 3.07, leading the AL in innings twice and strikeouts twice. He's an inner-orbit star on the mound and certainly one of the five best in his field right now. But a longer resume is required to be king, or Dexy's Midnight Runners would be in the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame.

Kershaw's 2.88 ERA over his first 116 starts is head-turning even in Dodger Stadium, but it's no guarantee of future greatness. Let's see him wear the crown awhile before we starting warming up the anointing oil.

By the way, of the five Hall of Fame projection models, Halladay wins election right now in two of them and he's one good year away in the other three. And that doesn't include his season-openging gem against the Pirates of eight-inning, two-hit shutout ball.

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Too Much Too Soon for Too Long

Back in the days when I had time to play Rotisserie Baseball, my better-looking but balder partner and I liked to sandbag other teams with high-cost players, husband our resources until the bidding cooled off, gobble up value picks and then spend lavishly on one or two players who particularly tickled our fancy. (Usually they were top players at positions of scarcity.) It was a pretty successful strategy.

The San Francisco Giants may be engaged in the same dance, albeit with a million times as many dollars.

The Goliaths inked pitcher Matt Cain to an astounding five-year, $117.5 million deal Monday that doesn't kick in until after this season and that can't, by any reasonable measuring tool, be justified. It's too much money for too long for a guy who isn't even the ace of the staff. 

Make no mistake, Matt Cain is a stud. He's thrown 190 innings in each of his first six years, posting park-aided ERAs between 2.88 and 3.76 in all but his rookie campaign. Because he gets less support from his hitters than from his jock strap, his W-L record belies his excellence, but he is among the 10 best hurlers in the NL.

The problem is, early studliness does not ensure future results. Some inning eaters keep gobbling, like Greg Maddux and Mark Buehrle, and some push away from the buffet, like Johan Santana and Mike Hampton. That's why in the old days, say 2010, long contracts requiring teams to take big risks involved smaller payouts. 

But there may be a method to the Big Men's madness. If the they can lock down ace Tim Lincecum with another mega millions outlay, they will have the entire young core of their roster signed or under team control for half a decade. That includes starter Madison Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey, cornerman Pablo Sandoval and promising first baseman Brandon Belt. If a couple of their farm assets ripen on schedule, the G-Men have a championship window that is closed without Cain and Lincecum.

Such justification is an empty bucket in Cincinnati, where the Reds re-upped Joey Votto for a decade at $225 million guaranteed -- and it doesn't even commence until after the next two seasons, when anything could happen, like their slugging first baseman blowing out his Achilles on the last play of the season just before the cash machine starts pumping.

Again, Joey Votto is a monster, the best player the Reds have seen so far (he's only 28) since Joe Morgan. Really. He hits for average, gets on base, slugs, flashes leather, runs reasonably well, plays with hustle and humility, shares his hair product with the guys and tears up at Hallmark commercials.*  But for a bout of depression that sidelined him for three weeks three years ago, he's been relatively healthy.

(*Or he doesn't, whichever.)

The Reds were right to seek to retain his services for the foreseeable future but they rushed into a deal they could have made a year or two later after assuring themselves that Votto didn't turn into a pumpkin at midnight of his sixth season. They are shelling out the superstar Benjamins, assuming all the risk and accepting the late-year over-payments without any concessions from the player. It's almost impossible to detect downside for Votto unless he reprises the second half of Barry Bonds' career, and even then he has $264 million of career earnings to salve his wounds.

Teams need to tell their players that top dollar and long guarantees are either-or propositions. If the club is going to accept all the risk, it has to get a discount. If they pay market rate, they don't have to make a long commitment. Our fantasy team may have spent $26 on Miguel Tejada, but we could throw him back into the auction the following year.

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Jamie Moyer By the Numbers

Jamie Moyer, who played Little League during the Nixon Administration and made his Major League debut before 10 of his teammates were born, has been named the #2 starter for Colorado this season.

Moyer turns 50 in November and is coming off arm surgery that devoured his 2011 season.

If he pitches 100 innings, gets a win , or pitches a complete game, he will topple some long-held records. See here.

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What's A Weak Hitter Worth?

You may have noticed that someone named Jonathan Lucroy recently agreed to an $11 million, five year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. No deadly weapons were aimed threateningly at GM Doug Melvin's head, which surely had you shaking yours. Lucroy, after all, is a second-year backstop with a .260 batting average, 16 home runs in 700 at bats and no particular minor league pedigree.

Isn't professional sports truly the land of lottery tickets? Should Melvin instead have gifted his young catcher a hearty backslap and an expression of confidence that he'd be employed in the Majors in five years?

Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is, probably not. This is a deal with high upside and relatively little risk, which you can expect to see repeated league-wide.

In his first full season, Lucroy hit .265/.312/.391 last year for the Brewers. It's not exactly fantasy owner heaven, but it's slightly above average at catcher. Lucroy gets high marks for his skills in shin guards and at 25 can reasonably be expected to improve.

Without any behind-the-plate prospects on the farm, Milwaukee has locked up its backstop for the half decade he is most likely to excel. They are promising Lucroy roughly what he would earn during his pre-arbitration years and roughly what he'd earn in arbitration thereafter if he maintains his performance -- a win or two over replacement. (If Lucroy exceeds that, he can earn an extra $2 million.)

The alternative would be to roll the dice and hope to get . . . whatever detritus is out there. When Buster Posey's season evaporated in a home plate collision last year, the Giants lost five wins and the Wild Card. His replacements hit hardly better than Posey in a cast.

Having established cost-certainty at catcher, Milwaukee can turn its attention to keeping its pitching assets -- most notably Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, who qualify for free agency after this season.

So what's in it for Jonathan Lucroy, his wife and baby Ella? How about five guaranteed years of seven-figure paychecks? In the unlikely event that he turns into the next Mike Piazza, Lucroy can break the bank in 2018. Your wife would be okay with that, right?
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The 2012 Season, So Far

Dustin Ackley your AL batting champ? Who knew?

The first play-in game is in the books and it's everything we thought it would be. Seattle's anemic offense (2.45 runs per nine) tops just pitiful Oakland's (0.82).

It's nice to see Ichiro ahead again in the race for the batting title, at .800. All singles, as you'd have guessed. Ditto for Yoenis Cespedes, living up to Oakland's hopes with a .333/.500/.667 performance. He's got to cut down on the 324-strikeout pace though, or he'll never catch league-leading Ackley's 162-homer output.

King Felix's 272-inning pace with a 1.13 ERA screams Cy Young, even if he hasn't registered a decision all year. His .625 WHIP is historic, not to mention the envy of fantasy owners. It's the polar opposite of poor Andrew Carignan, the A's reliever on pace for 48 frames of 540 ERA ball and 162 losses. Are you sure he's not a Pirate?

Finally, games sure are moving quickly now that no one all season has issued a walk. Wait, the A's without a free pass? Did Billy Beane retire?

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The Final Standings As of March

For what it's worth, below are Baseball Prospectus's projections for the 2012 season.

Keep in mind that projections are not predictions. They are derived by aggregating the expected performances of each individual player and his projected playing time. Each player projection is a meld of his past performance and the experiences of players like them in the next year of their career.

BP runs a million season simulations and averages them for the numbers you see here.

NL East

Atlanta Braves            88  74  .543

Philadelphia Phillies    88  74  .543

Miami Marlins              87  75  .537

Washington Nationals 83  79  .512

New York Mets            78  84  .481

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals      88  74  .543

Milwaukee Brewers    86  76  .531

Cincinnati Reds          85  77  .525

Chicago Cubs              74  88  .457

Pittsburgh Pirates      72  90  .444

Houston Astros          62  100 .383

NL West

San Francisco Giants     86  76  .531

Arizona Diamondbacks  85  77  .525

Colorado Rockies           80  82  .494

San Diego Padres           79  83  .488

Los Angeles Dodgers      78  84  .481

AL East

New York Yankees           93  69  .543

Boston Red Sox              88  74  .543

Tampa Bay Rays              86  76  .525

Toronto Blue Jays           77  85  .474

Baltimore Orioles            73  89  .451

AL Central

Detroit Tigers          85  77  .519

Cleveland Indians     80  82  .494

Chicago White Sox   78  84  .481

Minnesota Twins      73  89  .451

Kansas City Royals    67  95  .414

AL West

Texas Rangers          99  63  .611

Los Angeles Angels   88  74  .543

Oakland A's               73  89  .451

Seattle Mariners       70  92  .432

The Texas projection shocks me, particularly losing C.J. Wilson and expecting a decline in performance from Josh Hamilton and perhaps some of the rest of the rotation. BP foresees big things from Japanese import Yu Darvish and the Texas offense, which it projects to outscore the Angels by 207 runs.


On the other end of the spectrum, it's hard to overstate how little the projection thinks of Houston. To lose 100 games, teams usually experience multiple breakdowns, injuries and unexpected bad play. This projection says the Astros will lose 100 if all goes according to plan. That means a bad season in Houston could mean 110 losses.


The projection sees the Yankees and Red Sox both crushing the ball, but New York doing a much better job of run prevention. (Andy Pettite's return makes little difference in that equation.) It also projects that the Blue Jays' pitching is even more odious than the Orioles', but less putrid than both the Twins' and Royals'. The system has little reverence for the AL Central in general.


With the departure of Roy Oswalt and serious regression from Vance Worley, BP sees the Phillies' rotation as a three-man All-Star Team. It rates the Giants' pitching staff as 19 runs superior, though that may all be ballpark.


These standings suggest rock-'em, sock-'em, top-to-bottom slugfests in the NL East and West, and a three-way dogfight in the NL Central. Not so much in the AL, where the projections, like the Watergate reporters, follow the money.
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Sabathia, Nova . . . Johan Santana?

Great news for the Mets from Florida: Johan Santana is flummoxing batters again and appears on track to reclaim his position as ace of the rotation.

Big shakers of salt always have to accompany teams to Spring Training, but it's an especially tasty development in Santana's case following Sept. 2010 shoulder surgery that kept him out of action all last year.

A few more starts like his six-inning domination of the full Cardinals lineup should have Met brass celebrating with Santana's agent. And asking him to waive his no-trade clause.

Consider the Mets' dilemma in lists.

Here's the list of reasons the Metroplitans have no chance to compete in the NL East this year:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. They stink.

Here' are the top 6 items on the Mets' 2012-2013 Christmas list.
1. Money to make payroll.
2. Money to clear debt.
3. Money to sign developing talent.
4. Money to sign key free agents.
5. Young talent.
6. Patient commitment to a rebuilding plan

Here's the list of items, after a new Madoff-related subpoena, that Sandy Alderson can most do without in 2012-2013:
1. An extravagantly expensive 33-year-old starter with health concerns and trade value.
2. Unwarranted expectations by fans that this is anything more than the developmental squad for the 2014 team.

The cash-strapped franchise owes Santana $49 million over the next two years, plus a $5.5 buyout on a $25.5 team option for 2014. The odds of that contract paying off, equal to the odds of anyone picking up that option, are still greater than the odds that the Mets will be competitive during its life. With Santana and some good breaks, the Mets avoid the cellar and/or win half their games. Without him, they flop, rehire some laid-off ticket sales guys and mine some prospects.That's why they need to trade Santana.


The question then is: who would relinquish emerging talent and commit a fat chunk of payroll to an aging, ex-star whose performance began slipping even before his body came apart? By 2010, his heater had cooled a few degrees to 90 mph and his strikeout rate had plummeted to 6.5/game. It was topping 9.0/game in his Twins heyday.


The answer is no one, which is why the Mets would have to kick back a hefty chunk of Santana's salary. Still, saving $15 million/year (minus the $400,000/year cost of his replacement), rather than unloading the full $25 million salary, is better than nothing. It frees up 40 Lucas Duda salaries and maybe helps find the next Lucas Duda or two. 

Now with two Wild Cards, everyone this side of the Astros thinks they're a pitcher away. A veteran squad with a rotation hole and a big bank account -- I'm looking at you Rangers, Yankees,  Red Sox, Cardinals, Marlins and even you Brewers -- might entertain a deal.


The key to a Met Renaissance is as much about whether the team is willing to trade the present for the future as it is about what they are able to get in those trades. As the oldest and least affordable of their chips, a seemingly healthy Santana should be at the top of that list.
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Feeling Chipper in Retirement

Good for Chipper Jones.

Knowing when to hang 'em up is a skill not well correlated with hitting a baseball. And if there's anything this future Hall of Fame third baseman knows, it's hitting a baseball. Even in the geriatric segment of his career, Chipper has continued to contribute with the bat.

Now, as he turns 40, Chipper has announced that 2012 will be his curtain call. This is a beautiful thing. He will enjoy a 162-game valedictory tour and retire as a lifelong Brave. That's six months of hosannas at 20 ballparks around the Majoirs. He will go out as a productive player to the last, or at the very least, as one who quit as soon as his skills ebbed. And he will go home with his body intact.

Chipper has admitted that he had to begin icing down after each game starting in 2009, at age 37. Not coincidentally, that's when his production slid from MVP-caliber to good. He has played in 140 games just once since turning 33 and he's missed more than 100 games the last two years. And while "statuesque" works for supermodels, it's not what the Braves want defensively from their third baseman.

So we will spend the 2012 season reviewing a gargantuan career. A World Series. An MVP. Seven All-Star appearances. Five years of 1,000+ OPS. The third most home runs -- 454 so far -- of any switch hitter in history. In his worst year (by OPS), Chipper hit 16% above average, walked nearly as often as he whiffed, slugged 30 homers and got aboard at a .362 clip. 

Why stain that legacy, hurting all the way? Congratulations to Chipper Jones for ending on an up note. As Bruce Springsteen said, we've got to get out while we're young.

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A Sterling Silva Career

The thoroughly eccentric career of Carlos Silva appears to have come to an end as he was cast out by the Boston Red Sox on St. Patrick's Day. If so, Silva's time in the majors will be remembered as a singularity.

Actually, to be accurate, Silva's career came to an end on August 1, 2011, following a magnificent half season for the Cubs. Unable to catch his breath after the first inning of a start, Silva went under the knife for a heart arrhythmia and has never been the same since. 

Not that he was ever the same before that.

Silva was drafted by the Phillies out of Venezuela in '96 and made his pro debut in '02. Featuring a fastball and sinker and little else, the results were excellent -- 5-0, 3.21 out of the pen. But there were troubling signs. A soft-tossing righty, Silva was relinquishing more than a hit-an-inning and fanning just four per game. Pitchers who aren't fooling batters sufficiently to whiff six or seven per nine rarely have long MLB careers.

What was keeping Silva successful was a plethora of ground balls. He allowed just four hits to leave the yard in 84 frames, and as long as he could keep that up, and the walks down, he had a chance to survive, even if it was a tightrope walk. The following season he gave up three more homers in just three more innings, his walk rate spiked to nearly four per game and he fired a dozen wild pitches. Not surprisingly, his ERA busted loose to 4.43 and his value tanked. Before the '04 season the Phils shipped him off to Minnesota -- the land of soft-tossers -- as part of a package for Eric Milton.

Score one for the Twins. Moved into the starting rotation, Silva surrendered more hits and more home runs and struck out even fewer -- a nearly inconceivable 3.4 per game. But he helped pace a staff of extreme control freaks, walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings. He contributed 14-8, 4.21 in a 4.50 ERA league and helped Minnesota win the Central.

Then it got crazy. As Silva added the pounds, he focused his control. In '05, he became just the second pitcher in more than 80 years to match his walk total in wins, with nine each. (In 1994, Bret Saberhagen walked just 13 batters en route to a 14-4 mark with the Mets. He gave up as many home runs as walks that year.) Despite torn knee cartilage, Silva (9-8, 3.44) teamed with Johan Santana and Brad Radke for an astonishing 5.53 K/BB ratio. It sounds great, but with just 77 KOs in 188 innings, Silva had little room to maneuver.

The next season the ball began flying out of the park and the ERA ballooned to 5.94. He got things back under control a bit in his walk year (13-14, 4.81) but Seattle inconceivably broke the bank for him (four years, $48 million) a move that contributed to GM Bill Bavasi's dismissal.

More homers, more walks, even fewer strikeouts and a 10-car pile-up of injuries, including a frayed rotator cuff that liquidated most of the '09 season, bedeviled Silva and he went 5-18, 6.80 over those two years, prompting the Mariners to enact the trade of broken toys with the Cubs for uncertified lunatic Milton Bradley. Seattle got hosed when Bradley broke down and Silva shocked the world. He jacked his strikeout rate 50% higher than normal (to nearly the Major League average)and delivered 13 quality starts in 16 tries. Using Seattle's money, the Cubs got half a season of Roy Halladay quality out of Carlos Silva.

The wheels came off in the second half of 2010, then the heart palpitations, then elbow tendinitis, then the Cubs gave him his walking papers and an $11.5 million severance. The Yankees took a look last year, but you know the end has arrived when a team breaks camp with the smoldering remains of a 280-pound right-hander and it's Bartolo Colon, not you. So Silva returned to Medina, MN to live off the last MLB check with his wife and two kids.

For his career, Silva's 70-70 record is probably generous given a 4.68 ERA. He struck out just four-a-game, but walked just 1.7, the fifth lowest career rate for a starter since 1950. (Bob Tewksbury, Brad Radke, Bret Saberhagen and Rick Reed rank ahead of him. Greg Maddux and Roy Halladay aren't far behind.) All the rest of that group pitched better, longer and managed to miss a bat now and then. Given what Silva evidently had to work with, he squeezed nine years and $54 million out of that lemon. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

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"I Had VCU In the Final Four Last Year"

Kentucky's versatility . . .North Carolina's "length" . . . Syracuse's interior defense without Melo . . . the perimeter game of Team X versus the 2-3 zone of Team Y . . . and on and on. A glut of basketball savants, "bracketologists" and coaching experts fill the airwaves these days with their gratuitous knowledge.

So how many of the hoops cognoscenti could even conceive of Lehigh beating Duke?  Norfolk State downing Missouri? Ohio U. ousting Michigan?

In all of the free market, nowhere are supply and demand more out of balance than in the market for sports "experts." Every ink-stained wretch, gabber and Twitmonger can fill your ears with the number of Drexel's top-100 wins, but for all the words they expend on the subject, not one of them can out-pick the chalkline on their bracket sheet.

There's nothing wrong with that, of course. The winds of fortune are more powerful than a seed line. It's the claims of expertise that are so silly.

Just once I'd like to hear an "analyst" refuse to pick winners because it's a fool's errand. Similarly, I'd like to see a local newscast in which the weather dude admits that your guess about the weather six days from now is as good as his.

I once broadcast the news on Sundays at a radio station that used a four-day forecast from a TV meteorologist who had failed to call in. I used his Saturday forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and regressed halfway to the mean for Wednesday. (A mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain around 50%, pretty much covers all bases.) An hour later, when he called in with the updated forecast, I told him what I'd done. This was his response:

"Yeah, that's what I do."

I like to keep that in mind when someone who can name the sixth man on Colorado State says something definitive about the NCAA tournament. Because until he tells me in advance that NC State, a bubble-team, is going to knock off Georgetown, a three-seed, all I hear is static anyway.
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