09 March 2014

Will Mike Trout Be the Best Ever?

You can't write about Major League Baseball these days without writing repeatedly about Mike Trout. It would be like leaving out Mozart from a history of classical music. Trout, after all, has already in his young career reached heights no one else has seen in the game's 130-year history.

Mike Trout authored the greatest age-20 season of all time, batting .326 with 30 homers, scoring 129 runs, swiping 49 of 55 bases and intercepting everything in center field. He followed that with the greatest age-21 season of all time, somehow increasing his OPS 25 points. He was the world's most spectacular player (and the AL's most valuable, though not the Most Valuable) each of his first two seasons. He is the greatest player through age-21 ever to play the game.

Consider this: Before he's even celebrated his 22nd birthday, Mike Trout has produced 21 wins against replacement at the highest level of baseball on the planet. That's more than Carl Everett, a two-time All-Star who hit a commendable .271/.341/.462 with 202 homers and 107 stolen bases, produced in his entire career. Mike Trout has had Carl Everett's entire career before most great players even get a Major League call-up.

In fact, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has determined that Mike Trout has had the greatest  career of all time through age-22 -- even though he hasn't played his age-22 season yet. He could literally play at replacement level for the Angels in 2014 -- we're talking something like .240/.300/.380 with average defense and 12 steals --  and still be considered the greatest 22-year-old ballplayer of all time. (We would re-assess him if he were that bad, but you get the point.)

Fortunately for us, nothing short of a season-ending injury in Spring Training will prevent Mike Trout from producing value in 2014. Fangraphs' Steamer projections system, which tends to be conservative with superstars, projects for Trout .306/.401/.522, 26 homers, a very pessimistic 31 of 43 steals, and about eight more wins above replacement. 

So Mike Trout is a certain Hall of Famer and is knocking on Babe Ruth's mansion to claim the Best of All Time trophy, right? In the words of the sage philosopher Quick Draw McGraw, "now just a doggone minute there, Babalooie."

Consider the plight of Cesar Cedeno, the Mike Trout of the '70s. Cedeno burst onto the scene from the Dominican at age 19 in 1970 flashing speed, power and potential. In 90 games in that rarely-mourned cavern called the Astrodome, Cedeno laid down a .310/.340/.451 with 17 steals in half a season for Houston. He regressed a bit at age-20, but then broke out the following two years, hitting .320, averaging 37 doubles, 23 homers, 55 steals and 7.7 wins against replacement. Entering the 1974 season, 23-year-old Cedeno was at the top of everyone's "next superstar" list, the top power/speed merchant since Mantle and Mays.

It's not as if Cedeno disappointed. Over the next four years he averaged .352 OBP, 35 doubles/triples, 18 homers, 56 steals and 5.2 wins against replacement. Through his age-26 season, he had collected four All-Star berths, five Gold Gloves, and 40 WAR. He was a star, just not quite a superstar.

And then the wheels came off -- or at least one wheel. Surgery following a bad knee injury cost him most of 1978 and limited his effectiveness thereafter. Cedeno never again stole 50 bases, never again hit even 11 homers, and missed at least a third of games in five of his remaining eight seasons. It's a cautionary tale for Trout and his fans.

Cedeno's tale of the tape is a study in excellence. He smacked 199 home runs, nearly 500 doubles/triples, added 550 steals and hit 23% above average while patrolling the vast center pasture. His 53 lifetime WAR ties him with Fred McGriff and places him a few spots above Lance Berkman, Mickey Cochran and Luis Gonzalez. 

Almost anyone would envy Cedeno's career, but not Mike Trout. Trout is aiming well-above 259th on the WAR list and so are his fans, which should include every baseball in North America. Now in year three, we'll be watching to see if he transitions from phenom to marvel and avoids the plight of players like Cesar Cedeno.


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