What do the projection systems have against Evan Longoria?
The All-Star third-sacker has manufactured a .298 lifetime True Average (TAv) in a seven-year career, dropped below .300 only by last season's struggles following off-season surgery. That not withstanding, Longo has been automatic 30 homers and a .351 lifetime on base percentage.
The projections systems say that at 29 all of Longoria's best days are behind him. Three prominent systems -- PECOTA, ZIPS and Steamer -- say he is more like a .255-.260 hitter, with OBP in the .330s and low-20s home runs. A seven win player his first six seasons, Longoria is grading out as just a three-win player in 2015, almost all of it because of defense.
This suggests that players with Longoria's profile -- medium-speed power hitters with fancy leather -- don't age well starting in their late 20s. Or it suggests that a new $100 million contract will emotionally short-circuit the ordinarily Evan-keeled Longoria and dampen his skills in 2015.
Neither of these premises rings particularly true. Indeed, the most likely event, barring further injury, is a bounceback from last year's scuffles that sustains itself for a couple of seasons before real decline sets in. The former Rookie of the Year has too much talent, demonstrated too consistently, to suddenly fall off the cliff in his prime.
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