According to the projection system PECOTA, Adrian Beltre presents the 21st best everyday player profile for 2015, 10th among American Leaguers.
The projection system doesn't much cotton to the Rangers themselves, tabbing them for a last place tussle in the AL West. But it likes their hot cornerman, forecasting another All-Star type season of .298-.344-.482, with 24 home runs and a .304 True Average (TAv). With more-or-less average defense, Beltre grades out as the silver medalist among AL third baseman.
It's not hard to see why he projects so well. Beltre has authored a .316-.354-.565 line over the past five seasons, four of them in Arlington, and he's averaged 625 plate appearances during that period, en route to five straight years of MVP ballot appearances. His TAvs during that stretch form a noteworthy quintet: .321, .296, .321, .315, .324.
If anything, it would appear that Beltre's projection -- a decline of 18 points of batting average, 73 points of slugging percentage and 20 points of TAv -- is pessimistic. It would be his worst campaign since an injury-plagued '09 in Seattle.
In fact, though, this projection suggests that the 17-year veteran is a remarkable player. Adrian Beltre will turn 36 as the season commences (April 7), an age at which most everyday players have lost their luster. Ken Griffey Jr., a near-certain first ballot Hall of Famer, was an average hitter at 36 and couldn't stay on the field for the entire season. Scott Rolen, a Beltre doppelganger of sorts, was on the way out of the Majors at 36. Vladimir Guerrero, a similar hitter, played his final season at 36, poking 13 home runs and walking 17 times in 590 plate appearances.
Suppose the PECOTA projection is spot on. Beltre will enter his age 37 season, for which he is signed, with 420 lifetime home runs and 560 doubles, a .286 batting average, Gold Gloves and sterling defense, and 82 wins against replacement. In other words, a Hall of Fame candidate still going strong at the plate with at least another year to gild his lily.
That might surprise you, and for good reason. Beltre has enjoyed an unconventional -- indeed upside down -- career, with one great season prior to age 30 and five of them (and counting) in dotage. He spent his first six Major League seasons in a Dodger uniform trying to find the missing piece, which didn't occur until his walk year in L.A, He broke out like Chicken Pox that season for 48 homers, a .324 batting average and second-place MVP finish.
Five solid but unremarkable summers in Seattle followed until, at age 31, he busted loose again for 79 extra base hits and a .321 average -- while toiling under a one-year contract with the Red Sox. Then followed four superior seasons at the time most ballplayers begin giving back average and power. The total profile will present a challenge to Hall voters unless Beltre continues this unlikely onslaught for another few trips around the sun.
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