19 June 2014

Is A Perfect Game Just Lucky?

Here's another entry from the Things We've Learned from Sabermetrics file:

No-hitters are just lucky three-hitters, and might not even be very well-pitched games.

In fact, as documented in this space, several recent whitewashings have underwhelmed. When the starter allows seven walks and a hit-by-pitch, fans just three, requires a fence-defying grab by an outfielder and enjoys an unearned strike call on a 3-2 count with the bases loaded, there's nothing to celebrate.

That's why Clayton Kershaw's essentially perfect game last night (his shortstop threw away an easy out) in an 8-0 shellacking of Colorado absolutely sparkled. There's not a ton of luck involved when the pitcher dispatches 15 batters without involving his defense. Last year's NL Cy Young Award winner employed such a filthy curveball and slider that the Rockies were able to produce only meek grounders for the majority of the remaining 12 outs.

In fact, basically any 0-walk, 15-strikeout game is a gem. Any hurler who can flummox the opposition so thoroughly is almost certainly allowing only fortunate singles. No one ever dominates the other team so profoundly while allowing six extra base hits.

Bill James's Game Score metric rates Kershaw's perfecto the second-best pitching performance in a nine-inning game ever, behind Kerry Wood's one-hit, 0-walk, 20-strikeout mindbender in May of 1998. (To make Wood's accomplishment even more amazing, he delivered it in just his fifth career start at age 20 against an excellent Astros team and received just two runs of support from the Cubs.)

Second best ever? Yeah, that sounds like Clayton Kershaw.

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