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For the seventh consecutive year, the strikeout rate has risen in April, to more than one every five plate appearances. Roughly 16 batters whiff in an average nine-inning game.
Theorized reasons for this trend are myriad. Fastball velocity has risen over the years, from an average of 89.8 mph in 2008 to 91.4 mph this season, according to Beyond the Box Score. Chris Moran notes in this BTB article that 12 pitchers had averaged 94 mph in an April start last year. That number was 25 with half of April to go in 2014.
There are other factors as well. Batters are swinging more at balls outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside it. That may be due to improved catcher framing, which has become a subject of much more emphasis now that cameras are observing every pitch and recording the result. Analysis has discovered that catchers can alter a significant number of ball/strike calls in the course of a game because umps are more likely to call strikes on pitches caught by the catcher if he doesn't move to retrieve the throw.
From an aesthetic standpoint, most fans are not enamored of this development. Few people pay to see a lot of wind-making. From a strategic standpoint, it seems obvious that strikeouts are a negative event for the team at bat -- after all, they are outs. But in a more general sense, the evidence suggests that strikeouts are very necessary evils.
In fact, strikeouts are often a tradeoff. Batters who swing hard and wait for their pitch -- i.e., pass on pitches they don't like even if they're in the strike zone -- tend to whiff frequently. But that strategy yields more walks, fewer double plays and more home runs.
New research from the Hardball Times illustrates the actual correlations between strikeouts and other events. As you can see below, batters who fan more get on base slightly less (OBP) but hit for more power (SLG, ISO), ground into fewer twin killings (GIDP) and have a slightly higher batting average when they do make contact (BABIP), presumably because they hit the ball harder. On balance it's a positive tradeoff; more whiffs correlate with better overall hitting (wOBA).
| Individual K rate and offensive statistic regression analysis | |
|---|---|
| Stat | Correlation (R) |
| OBP | -0.07 |
| SLG | 0.19 |
| ISO | 0.40 |
| wOBA | 0.10 |
| GIDP | -0.22 |
| IFH | -0.27 |
| HR/FB | 0.53 |
| IFFB% | -0.16 |
| GB% | -0.28 |
| FB% | 0.31 |
| BABIP | 0.08 |
| BB% | 0.28 |
Obviously there's a limit to that relationship; if every batter struck out there would be no OBP, SLG, HR or scoring at all. And Major League baseball may have reached that tipping point. Scoring has declined more or less steadily during the seven years that strikeouts have risen.
All this may be premature -- a blip on the season's radar. But as part of a larger trend, it's probably not. And that means more Ks and fewer Rs the rest of the way. You've been warned.
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