The Eight-Man Rotation

"Too much of a good thing is . . . wonderful." --Mae West

One might eyeball the Red Sox rotation going into the 2014 season and consider trading one of their six quality starters for an outfield asset or an upgrade at third. But new research by Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan suggests that this would be a bad idea.

You are officially discouraged from linking to his fine article because if you do there will be little reason to read this. Let's instead review his work on the fallacy of the five-man rotation and then draw the obvious conclusions.

First, a disclaimer: when you read the conclusions you're going to think they are so obvious they weren't worth the trouble. Everyone knows that pitchers get hurt or otherwise become ineffective, giving rise to the cliche that "you can never have too much pitching." Yet we all act as if his findings are unknown and focus all out attention on each team's starting five. You'll read many articles in fine publications during Spring Training about this team or that's fifth-starter competition, as if the battle is for an Olympic spot that's never relinquished.

Here's the upshot of the research: A quick and easy review of the five pitchers who made the most starts on each team reveals that the fill-ins amount, on average, to a whole other rotation spot. They averaged 32 starts and 170 innings per team. In other words, the average team uses the equivalent of six starters.

And that understates the issue. In many cases, the five hurlers with the most innings on a given team were not the five comprising the rotation on April 1. For example, the Dodgers entered the season with a first-rate quintet of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, Chad Billingsly and Josh Beckett. Greinke sustained a separated shoulder in a fight, Billingsly lost the season to injury, Beckett to injury and general uselessness. They brought in Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly, but Capuano got hurt, requiring a parade of plug-ins until trading for Ricky Nolasco. L.A. got 101 starts out of their planned rotation and needed help for the other 61. Even then, a Plan C was required for 36 of the 61 they thought they had replaced.

Which brings us to the Red Sox. They feature a starting rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavey, Clay Bucholz, Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempter. Six square pegs and only five square holes. The obvious temptation is to swap out Dempster, the weak link in the group, to fill a hole elsewhere. Ah, but not so fast, grasshopper.

Consider how the Pirates made the playoffs last year. Their starting rotation made just 82 starts, 60 of them out of A.J. Burnett and Jeff Locke. Wandy Rodriguez was effective -- for all 63 innings he contributed. James MacDonald made six desultory starts and the Bucs invoked the mercy rule on Jonathan Sanchez after 13 tightly-packed frames that included seven jacks and 18 runs.

The aces of the staff turned out to be lefty back-up plan, Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02), and rookie call-up Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.22). Another emergency starter, Charlie Morton, contributed 20 starts of 7-4, 3.26, while young reliever Jeanmar Gomez chipped in eight solid starts and ended up 3-0, 3.35. The Pirates coaxed 94 wins out of eight pitchers they had on the depth chart at season's commencement.

That's no guarantee that Boston will ever need Dempster to start this year. In 2012, the Cincinnati rotation made all but one start for the season. (The following season, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Mat Latos all blew up. Only the indestructable Bronson Arroyo made every start in '13.) But that's the exception that proves the rule and is so unusual that the previous team to do likewise was the Curse-busting Sox of 2004.

Where does Boston stash Dempster if he's not going to start until needed? Conveniently, the same place the Cubs put him from '04-'07 when he came out of the pen to save 87 games. He's not closer material -- he wasn't then, for that matter -- but he can keep the arm loose in long relief while the rotation sorts itself out. Lester, Lackey and Bucholz are all well-acquainted with the Disabled List.

Dempster might not even be number six on the Fenway depth chart. He's contributed at roughly replacement-level the last two seasons and might be slotted behind some youngster(s) who can retire batters more efficiently. Where the 37-year-old Canadian might be able to contribute is by eating innings, which he accomplished 171 times without complaint last year. Anyway, there's not much market for an aging, replacement-level, $13 million, number-six starter. Whatever the Red Sox could squeeze out of a trade partner probably isn't worth the insurance he provides on the mound.

So, the research is clear: you can never have too much pitching. Teams need six starters -- at least.