Arbitrosity: Why Craig Kimbrel Has No Chance of Getting His Nine Million

For three seasons, Craig Kimbrel is the greatest closer we've ever seen. Mariano Rivera's transcendence arose from his consistent greatness, but Rivera was never this dominant for three straight seasons.

How dominant? How about awe-inspiring? For three years and a 20-inning drive-by in 2010, Kimbrel is owns a 1.39 ERA with 15 whiffs per nine and a nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio. He's allowed a .155 batting average and a .243 on base percentage, and a home run about every 23 appearances. He's led the NL in saves all three years, converted 93% of his save opportunities the last two years, scored the Rookie of the Year award in 2011 and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting all three seasons despite facing one third as many batters as the starters he regularly out-polls.

Now in his first year of arbitration eligibility, Kimbrel is asking for $9 million. By nearly any baseball economics it's millions less than his full value. Fangraphs estimates he has provided the Braves with $42 million-worth of value for the low-low price of $1.664 million. 

Unfortunately for the 5'10" fireballer, the Braves have no obligation to even the balance sheet. Low early-career salaries are recompense for the massive investment teams make in players from the draft to MLB call-up. Kimbrel's first three seasons were spent compensating Atlanta for all the Minor League busts the ballclub is paying to float around its system.

Nor is the franchise obliged to offer him market wages. Teams are paying $10-$15 million for closers packing 40 saves. Measured another way, teams paid roughly $4.5 million per win against replacement last season, pegging Kimbrel at the same $10-15 million, depending on whose metrics you like best. (Fangraphs pegs his 2013 value at $11.1 million; Baseball-Reference at $13.5 million.) 

First year arbitration cases generally yield roughly 40% of market value. That explains why Atlanta brass has offered the greatest closer of all time (first three years only) "just" $6.55 million. They are saying that they value their closer at $16 million or so.

The difference between Kimbrel's $9 million request and the Braves' $6.55 million offer is the largest in percentage terms, by far, among the 39 cases headed towards arbitration. Kimbrel will have to convince an arbitrator either that he is a five-win pitcher despite throwing just 70 innings or that the value of a win against replacement has skyrocketed to $7 million.

Last year, not a single case went to arbitration. The arbitration proposals served as a foundation for settlements, avoiding what baseball executives, players and agents all agree is a disagreeable process in which the club must denigrate in writing their own highly-prized employee. But the chasm between player and team in this case does not suggest a middle ground. Unless Kimbrel agrees to something much closer to $7 million, or unless his agent and the team are a whisper apart on a multi-year deal, he's headed to an ugly and ultimately futile arbitration case.

After which he'll strike out the side.