Goodbye Valentine
Hindsight is 20/20, but didn't we all know that Bobby Valentine seemed like an odd choice for a veteran club with a history of success? Frankly, I thought the best manager for the Red Sox was Terry Francona, and if the team had ceased paying attention to him, a Terry Francona dopleganger.
I always assume the front office knows something I don't, but this time, they just made a bad judgment. You know who they should hire to replace Valentine? Terry Francona!
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The Orioles Will Fly South
I'm rooting doubly for the Orioles this post-season because I know that they are a streaking asteroid that will crash to earth next year. Their historic 2012 includes some unsustainable performances. To wit:
1. A 29-9 record in one-run games; 16-2 in extras. Not repeatable.
2. No starting pitching. On career years, the starters still managed just a 61-58 5.03 record, and posted a below-average number of quality starts. The lifetime ERAs of their top five starters are: 4.73, 4.78, 3.25 (this year only), 4.02 and 4.74.
3. Phenomenal relief pitching. Their top five pen-dwellers own 2012 ERAs between 2.28 and 2.64, but in no more than 75 innings. Bullpens are as stable as Amy Winehouse.
Godspeed Ballimer! See you again in 2016.
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Never Argue With An Idiot . . .
At week's start, I knew that Mike Trout was the best MVP candidate, but that a vote for a Triple Crown laureate, though wrong, was defensible.
The brain-addled illogic of the pro-Cabrera arguments have altered my thinking.
How about this one: Cabrera deserves it because his team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't. Let's stuff this turkey carcass in the trash this way: For kicks, we'll assign truth to the provably false notion that one player is responsible for his team's success.
Well then, Trout's team won 89 games; Cabrera's team 88. Advantage Trout.
Trout's team went 8-15 before calling him up, 81-58 after, a .582 winning percentage. Cabrera led his team to a .543 winning percentage. More advantage Trout.
Cabrera's team played in the weakest division in the AL and didn't sew up the division until the White Sox collapsed in the final two weeks. No advantage Cabrera.
Then there's this rat's nest of weak cognition: Cabrera came up big when it mattered at the end; Trout didn't.
It's true that Miggy got hot in the second half and his team finished 16-7 to win the Central. Trout's Angels finished 18-8 until the last two games, when elimination had already whispered in their ear. Their MVP nominee batted .340/.473/.705 in the final two-week sprint to the finish.
Finally, I actually heard this: the SABR types will value their stats and the traditionalists like me value ours. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and that's all I care about.
Isn't it fun when your opponent admits that he's wrong and everyone knows it but him? Austin Jackson led the league in triples (10), Kevin Youklis in HBP (17) and Quintin Berry in SB% (21 without getting caught.) Those are my stats, so maybe one of them should be MVP. Youk!
Just for the record, Baseball-Reference has Trout at 10.7 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 6.9, five spots back. Discounting defense, they have Trout at 8.6 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 7.5, which means their system is pretty generous to both on the defensive side of the ledger. (This is doubly remarkable when you consider that Trout missed the first 23 games of the season.) They also have Trout higher on adjusted OPS (OPS adjusted for ballpark) and 40 points higher on offensive winning percentage. Unlike batting average, home runs and RBIs, these metrics take everything into account.
In short, Mike Trout had a better season than Miguel Cabrera, amazing though Cabrera was with the stick. And that's really the only argument there is.
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Here We Go Again
Baseball's post-season is a lottery, but it does appear as if the Yankees are finally rounding into playoff form. They've got Andy Pettitte healthy, this hour. Mark Teixeira returned from injury last week and promptly belted a homer. And there's some semblance of order in the rotation with Hideki Kuroda shaping up.
Given their home field advantage, they've got to be considered the favorite in the AL.
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Leaving Las Vegas
The NL is much more of a dice roll. I wouldn't let Barak Obama bet Mitt Romney's money on that one.
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