20 July 2012

Fish Or Cut Bait: When Marlins Flounder


Grab the Advil; I just made you general manager of the Miami Marlins. You've got a spiffy new neo-gaudy downtown ballpark, a Spanish-speaking (but non-thinking) manager, a stunning young slugger named Giancarlo, and a boatload of high-priced free agents, from the electrifying shortstop to the shutdown closer. You were going to battle the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East.

Which is exactly what you're doing as long as we read the paper upside down. It's no consolation to you that the Phils are playing more like the Dr. Phils. Your squad is four games under .500 and 10 games out of first 5/9ths of the way into the season. They've been outscored by all but four teams in the Majors and the pitching is below average as well.

Your stud hot-cornerman has failed to rebound from a strife-filled 2011, recouping his power but not his on base skills or any defensive acumen. Your entire starting staff -- thought to be a strength -- has flirted with average but gotten few dates. Your high-priced free agents have run the gamut from good to godawful:

Mark Buehrle 2011: 3.59 ERA, 2.4 K/BB, 31 starts/205 innings
Mark Buehrle 2012: 3.13 ERA, 4.2 K/BB, 32 starts/218 innings*

Jose Reyes 2011:.877 OPS, 39/46 steals, worth 6.1 wins
Jose Reyes 2012: .714 OPS, 36/43 steals*, worth 2.9 wins*

Heath Bell 2011: 2.44 ERA, 2.43 K/BB, 4 blown saves
Heath Bell 2012: 6.21 ERA, 1.70 K/BB, 11 blown saves*

*on pace

And now the trade deadline looms as your playoff hopes fade. Nearly every team thinks it's in the hunt, tilting the market in favor of sellers like you. But what are you selling?

Your Marlins are not a rebuilding team. They plan to compete next year, at the latest. Flipping your marketable players for farmhands doesn't help your club in 2013 and 2014 when you expect to be in contention. Besides, you're trying to fill the seats against the competition of beaches, nightlife and endless diversions; another salary dump will not endear you to the fans.

Tis a puzzlement. Having emptied the vault for a World Series run, your three choices are: 1. Go all in on this season, trading more future stock for free agents.  2. Trade the present for a shot at the future . . . again. 3. Probably your best choice -- do basically nothing and hope you're better next year.

Whichever choice you make, you'll want a goodly share of ibuprofen.
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