The following is the L.A. Dodgers lineup that Don Mattingly trotted out for a scrap with the Mets on June 30 in the absence of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Included is each player's OPS+, i.e., their OPS compared to a league average of 100:
C -- AJ Ellis, .400 OBP, 125 OPS+
1B -- Juan Rivera, .296 OBP, 77 OPS+
2B -- Jerry Hairston, Jr. .370 OBP, 117 OPS+ (Jerry's son)
SS -- Dee Gordon, .279 SLG, 54 OPS+ (Tom's son)
3B -- Juan Uribe, .259 OBP, 49 OPS+
OF -- Tony Gwynn, Jr., .319 SLG, 68 OPS+ (Tony's son)
OF -- Elian Herrera, .327 SLG, 82 OPS+
OF -- Scott Van Slyke, .222 OBP, 43 OPS+ (Andy's son)
There is a word for this cast of misfits and the word isn't nepotism. The word is Isotopes. As in the AAA farm club in Albuquerque.
Aside from Ellis, who provided a taste of this in 31 games last year, and Hairston, who's 80 points of OPS over the head of his 15-year career, this is a minor league roster. The other six players combined have cost L.A. a win compared to a Triple-A lineup.
The pitching is solid and Kemp, Ethier and keystoner Mark Ellis will return, but that simply displaces some of this dreck to the bench, and leaves three or four black holes in the batting order. After a torrid Kemp-fueled start, the Bums have stumbled since he got hurt to 24 defeats in their last 39 games and slid into second place. The second half does not promise to be kind to the Dodgers because, despite early indications, they are not for real.
The standings on July 4 include several mirages. Here's a look at the surprises and whether they are for real or not.
White Sox & Indians -- Can Chicago and Cleveland remain at the lofty heights of slightly above-.500 records? In the case of the Sox, sure! A solid lineup including unheralded center fielder Alejandro de Aza ranks fourth in the AL in scoring and has the ability to maintain the pace. The pitching and defense is a little more wobbly, but 6'6" lefty Chris Sale's cool-off should coincide with a revitalized Gavin Floyd and John Danks. A plausible 86-76 record could pace the AL Central.
In rebuilding mode, Cleveland is more likely to jettison veterans than cling to a .500 record. The Natives have been out-played and outscored, and have only two reliably good players -- shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. I'll eat my moccasins if the Indians are within two games of the division lead at season's end.
Tigers -- Trodding old ground here. In short: pizza, nectarines and chocolate are all delicious, but would make a terrible sandwich. That's the Tigers.
Orioles -- The Birds have already begun their annual water slide ride. Adam Jones is Superman, but Baltimore's pitching is Kryptonite. Brian Matusz, 6-19, 7.33 over the last two years, has mercifully been returned to the farm, but the O's have no replacement. Not for real.
Red Sox -- Write them off at your peril. Trading nothing for Jacoby Ellsbury and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the second half should aid the rebound. They're for real, but their age is real too.
Nationals --Oh yeah. Great pitching. Youthful exuberance. This team needs another bat. Hey, woudja lookit that -- Jayson Werth returns soon.
Mets -- Not so much. (Previously covered. Upshot: A great story, but Dickey has peaked and that lineup is Wrong after Wright.)
Phillies -- Like the Red Sox, a declining veteran roster expecting back two stars. Unlike the Red Sox, the remaining veterans have almost unanimously not delivered. The return of Halladay and Lee could change everything, but the patient people of Philly have begun thinking Eagles.
Brewers -- As previously noted here, the Brewers' troubles have less to do with the departure of Prince than with the decline in pitching. Closer John Axford and fourth starter Randy Wolf have melted down and the bullpen is a dumpster fire. The offense, fifth in the NL in scoring, is playoff-worthy if paired with a decent mound corps. It's not too late to right the beer truck with a couple of modest trades for middle relief, but after they do, there are three teams to climb over. Milwaukee is better than this, but maybe not enough better.
Pirates -- Andrew McCutcheon and broad-based mound excellence have catapulted the Bucs into first place now that their losing-seasons streak has graduated high school. Their success is no illusion, but the playoffs are a stretch and the front office won't sacrifice any prospects for short-term gain. In fact, scuttle is abut sending #3 starter Eric Bedard to a contender for young talent.
Still, the future's bright enough for shades. Beside their miraculous center fielder (.360/.411/.612), the rest of the batting order has under-performed and owes the long-suffering denizens of the Steel City improvement. Jose Tabata (.230/.295/.341) and Garrett Jones (.270/.296/.520) will determine next year and beyond whether the great Pittsburgh drought ends. In the meantime, the Pirates are real enough for a winning season in 2012 and for possible contention as soon as '13.
There's gold in them thar hills for the Mets, Orioles, Indians and Pirates, just not this year. We may look back, though, at the changing of the guard that germinated in 2012.
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