06 January 2012

New Year's Resolutions for MLB

Every January 1, I resolve not to make any New Year's Resolutions. Having broken my resolution on contact, I then have 364 days to address the important issues of life, like where my wife put the remote.

But baseball, baseball needs some New Year's resolutions, resolutions it's going to keep. And not just resolutions for the commissioner of MLB and the 30 teams. We need some resolutions for all of us -- fans, reporters, broadcasters, players, coaches, etc.

So here follow my resolutions that other people should keep:

1. Speed up the damn game!
Ever hear this at the water cooler? "Wow, did you see that pitching change last night? Johnson really yanked that starter. You should have seen them gab until the ump came over to move things along. And the way he tapped his left arm -- it had the reliever sprinting out of the pen." We need rules to limit pitching changes, throws to first and time between pitches, so that nine-inning games don't outlast Middle East ceasefires. And if that means Ford has fewer opportunities to sell me a truck, so be it. I think Carlos Zambrano can live if his team can no longer afford to waste $18 million on his 5.81 ERA.

2. Condense the season.
Baseball is a summer game. It can also be played in mild spring and fall weather. Baseball in Cleveland during March, or in Milwaukee on a November night, is like ice hockey in Bahrain. Inasmuch as we're wed to 162 games, the leagues should resolve to shorten the playoffs and play occasional doubleheaders. There should not be any games before April 1 or after October 15.

3. Aim for warm weather.
There are teams in Tampa, Miami, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, L.A., San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland and Atlanta. The lords of baseball should resolve to find a way to schedule most games in those cities the first and last two weeks of the season.

4. Further flatten the labor market.
It's better than it used to be, but the gap in revenue potential between the mega-markets and the medium markets means that MSA-challenged teams are building sand castles as the tide comes in. Operating with razor-thin margins of error, they are competing for short bursts of contention, as the Brewers are demonstrating now. Baseball's powers should resolve to find more ways to share their income and the players should resolve to be more flexible about salary minimums and maximums if they want opportunities to contend regardless of where their teams call home.

5. Add new analysis to the coverage of the game.
ESPN, FOX, Turner and the local outlets should resolve to treat their viewers and listeners to the best information available. If Alexi Ogando is 7-0, 2.10, Tim McCarver should be expected to mention that Ogando's BABIP is unsustainable, that his strand rate suggests an unusual streak of luck and that the workload is uncharted territory for his career. If an amateur blogger in Charleston, SC has the ability to enlighten his readers of this, the big networks should be embarrassed not to.

6. Admit uncertainty in development of statistics.
Some of the reticence of mainstream sports media towards new analysis is the arrogance with which it's proposed. Even with the most sophisticated sabermetrics, no question in baseball analysis has been answered with total certainty. Seamheads should resolve to show some humility and avoid definitive statements like: there's no such thing as clutch hitting, batting average doesn't matter, pitching wins don't matter. (Okay, that last one is pretty close to definitive. But not entirely.)

7. Demand better analysis.
Here's a great barometer of the state of baseball analysis in the media: 
John Kruk employed by major TV network = no standards whatsoever.
John Kruk employed by regional TV network = standards are low.
John Kruk employed by local TV network = standards are inconsistent. 
John Kruk employed by local radio network = standards are moderate.
John Kruk on local cable public access channel = standards are satisfactory.
John Kruk tending bar back in West Virginia = baseball analysis nirvana.

We should all resolve to demand honest analysis from the so-called experts, whether they are former athletes or reporters. We should not accept ex post facto explanations conjured from the ether. We should not accept unsupportable declarations and should demand proof when assertions are made without factual support. We should demand that everyone supposedly enlightening us about our favorite sport understand OPS, park factors, BABIP, defense-independent pitching stats (at least in concept, if not in practice) and the need for context in all analysis. Operating without that knowledge is like operating on a human body without knowing the spleen from the appendix.

If all those resolutions are kept, understanding of America's pastime will skyrocket. There's probably also no Braindrizzling. See, an unintended benefit!
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