Diving Deeper In the BABIP Pool

A pitcher throws a pitch and it's strike three. Bully for him. He shares the credit with no one, except perhaps the batter, who deserves the entirety of the blame. It's part of what makes baseball largely a team game of individual performances.

Or, the batter takes ball four. The blame-credit dispensation is switched. Demerit pitcher and no one else. Credit batter alone.

Same hurler and hitter, but this time the bat makes contact and the ball sails into the warm, starry night. The moundsman can't blame his defense for a home run, unless it bounces off Jose Canseco's noggin and over the fence.

Walks, HBPs, Ks and home runs are all simply mano-a-mano events. When we examine the records of the combatants, we know exactly who did what by the result. Other kinds of results leave much more room for error because defense and luck play significant roles. 

Surely a pitcher who induces lots of pop-ups has the right to expect to pile up the outs. Those that drop between fielders are the exception, rather than the rule. Conversely, serving up a barrage of line drives is likely to lead to a quick hook.

Which brings us to Vernon Wells. The man with the toxic contract hit a miserable .218/.248/.412 for his 26 million,187 thousand, five hundred dollars in 2011. Wells isn't worth that money in three good years, but with that line he wasn't even worth a roster spot. You might espy a Major League Baseball-worst BABIP of .214 and conclude that he's ripe for a 2012 rebound. Alas, a deeper dive into his record and the kinds of balls he hit suggests that he suffered more from too many pop-ups and dribblers than from bad karma for his inflated paycheck.

With 86 punchouts in 529 plate appearances, we could expect Wells to bat .234 with his career BABIP of .282. But Wells was making weak contact in 2011, resulting in fewer line drives, more infield rollers, fewer ground balls, more shallow pops and more flies in general than his career average. In fact, he lined just one-eighth of his fair batted balls, the lowest percentage of his career. 

All this suggests Wells had no business batting much above .218, and unless he discovers a performance-enhancing formula, will have to stave off the effect of turning 33 since the last season. Mark Teixeira, now he's another story.

The slugging Yankee first-bagger suffered the third worst BABIP in baseball last season at .239. Teixeira hurt himself by pulling the ball too much, but hit just .215 on ground balls and just .646 on line drives. League average for each is about .320 and .750 respectively. Expect him to improve on his .248/.341/.494 in 2012, scary as that is.

Here's the list, courtesy of Baseball Reference, of the hitters who qualified for the batting title with the lowest BABIP in 2011. Expect most of them to improve at least their batting average and on base percentage next season.

Rk	Player	BAbip	Tm	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Vernon Wells	.214	LAA	529	505	110	15	4	25	20	86	.218	.248	.412	.660	*789/D
2	Alexis Rios	.237	CHW	570	537	122	22	2	13	27	68	.227	.265	.348	.613	*8/D
3	Mark Teixeira	.239	NYY	684	589	146	26	1	39	76	110	.248	.341	.494	.835	*3/D
4	Evan Longoria	.239	TBR	574	483	118	26	1	31	80	93	.244	.355	.495	.850	*5/D
5	Ian Kinsler	.243	TEX	723	620	158	34	4	32	89	71	.255	.355	.477	.832	*4D
6	Kurt Suzuki	.244	OAK	515	460	109	26	0	14	38	64	.237	.301	.385	.686	*2/D
7	Casey McGehee	.249	MIL	600	546	122	24	2	13	45	104	.223	.280	.346	.626	*5/3D
8	Dan Uggla	.253	ATL	672	600	140	22	1	36	62	156	.233	.311	.453	.764	*4
9	Yuniesky Betancourt	.259	MIL	584	556	140	27	3	13	16	63	.252	.271	.381	.652	*6
10	Carlos Santana	.263	CLE	658	552	132	35	2	27	97	133	.239	.351	.457	.808	*23/D

Batters do have some ability to affect BABIP; Ichiro in his productive years regularly batted .350 on balls in play. Wells, on the other hand, hits just .282 lifetime even when he's not striking out. Here are the guys with highest BABIP in 2011.

Rk	Player	BAbip	Tm	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Matt Kemp	.380	LAD	689	602	195	33	4	39	74	159	.324	.399	.586	.986	*8/D
2	Adrian Gonzalez	.380	BOS	715	630	213	45	3	27	74	119	.338	.410	.548	.957	*3/D9
3	Emilio Bonifacio	.372	FLA	641	565	167	26	7	5	59	129	.296	.360	.393	.753	65789/4
4	Michael Bourn	.369	TOT	722	656	193	34	10	2	53	140	.294	.349	.386	.734	*8
5	Michael Young	.367	TEX	689	631	213	41	6	11	47	78	.338	.380	.474	.854	D534/6
6	Alex Avila	.366	DET	551	464	137	33	4	19	73	131	.295	.389	.506	.895	*2/D5
7	Miguel Cabrera	.365	DET	688	572	197	48	0	30	108	89	.344	.448	.586	1.033	*3/D
8	Hunter Pence	.361	TOT	668	606	190	38	5	22	56	124	.314	.370	.502	.871	*9
9	Alex Gordon	.358	KCR	688	611	185	45	4	23	67	139	.303	.376	.502	.879	*7/3
10	Dexter Fowler	.354	COL	563	481	128	35	15	5	68	130	.266	.363	.432	.796	*8

How about Dexter Fowler, whose .354 BABIP still left him hitting .266. When his luck runs out, so will his MLBPA union card. On the other hand, we've seen this before from Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez. Cabrera's just 18 points above his lifetime mark of .347, which is why a) the bronze sculptor in Cooperstown is practicing carving Cabrera's face and b) no one is suggesting a fall to earth in 2012 for him.

We'll look at pitcher BABIP-against next time, and see who may be fixing to soar or belly-flop next season.

b