The Ghost of Christmas Past

The thing is, past performance does not guarantee future returns. It would be nice when, investing a quarter of a billion dollars, one could expect some kind of certainty, but the only certainty with a 32-year-old (at least!) athlete who has a history of back and elbow injuries is uncertainty.

The Angels, of course, are paying for past results. In just 11 years, Albert Pujols produced more lifetime value for the Cardinals than all but four first basemen in history, according to Baseball Prospectus. (Lou Gerhig [17 seasons], Jimmie Foxx [20 seasons], Cap Anson [forever]). An "average" Pujols year in 2012 would put Albert at the top of the list.

Notice that? "Average" is retrospective, representing ages 21-31. Prince Albert won't be scooping throws for Anaheim during those years; they only get his ages 32-41 seasons. They have purchased an outline of a player in the hopes that it won't be the chalk variety.

We may look back on Pujols's 2011 bemused by the anomalous dip in his production. He had by far the worst season of his career at the plate, with the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, true average and VORP and the fewest hits, doubles, walks, total bases and RBIs of his career. (He's come to the plate fewer times twice in his career.)

Or we may peer down the slope that began its downward vector in 2010, much as we could see the sine curve of Ken Griffey Jr.'s career. In that case, the Angels are paying for some large fraction of the 90 WARP (wins against replacement player) of Albert's first half but receiving Kent Hrbek instead. That's an asset, for sure, but it's only one-third the payoff, which at $254 million, is a loss of $169 mil. That's a dickens of a return on the ghost of Christmas past.

Fortunately for Anaheim management, tools exist to measure the risk and color inside the lines a bit. They suggest -- assuming Pujols really is his stated age (hrrrumph) -- a partial bounce back in 2012 and then a slow, steady decline over the next few years. The last three or four chapters of the contract are likely to be more about stat-padding than contributions to the team, but it does matter to ownership if a 41-year-old Albert swats his 764th home run while in a Halo uniform. That might not help them directly to win a pennant, but if it puts buttocks in the seats, the extra cash might pay for a critical part that will.

That Mrs. Pujols and the Pujols progeny are promised $25 million in 2019, and then again in 2020 and even in 2021 nearly guarantees that dear ol' dad will still be lugging his lunch bucket to Angel Stadium even if he's barely more than a splinter collector. That, in turn, increases the likelihood that he'll be chasing some big-time records and co-habitating with the royalty of the sport, if not pushing them all down the charts one notch. 

In that sense, the signing might benefit baseball fans in general, especially those who don't cotton to steroid-tinged records, whether owned by Mr. Bonds or Mr. Rodriguez.
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