Remember that year the St. Louis Cardinals stunk up the joint? Yeah, me either. The last time the team won fewer games than it lost was 12 years ago. The last time St. Louis fans endured consecutive (full) losing seasons -- 1958-59. The last time the Cards lost 100 games -- 1908, the year of the Cubs' last World Series. The Cardinals' Missouri neighbors, the Kansas City Royals, have lost 100 games four times -- in the last 10 seasons.
So when team owner Bill Dewitt Jr. begs forgiveness as the best player in a generation slips through his hands, we should be inclined to oblige. Dewitt claims the team's offer came up $30 million short, at 10 years and roughly $225 million.
In the aftermath, Dewitt and GM John Mozeliak may be breathing an arch-sized sigh of relief. A quarter of a billion dollars may be considered an "investment" to a team in Southern California, but it could sink the Redbird ship even if it pays off. Because Pujols was already a Cardinal, and because fans already pack Busch Stadium, it wasn't as if the franchise could spin his arrival into enough gold to cover part of the deal's cost. The Cards are already maximizing revenues, thanks to their politely rabid Midwest fans.
With Matt Holliday signed through '16 at $17 mil per, the middle and back ends of a 10-year Pujols contract could have gummed up team finances even if Albert delivered as expected. No team can win a World Series on the backs of an outfielder and a first baseman; it needs sufficient disposable income to purchase a pitching staff and other offensive assets. It's not clear that the #18 market can support a consistently $100+ million payroll.
Dewitt and Mozeliak had to make a creditable play for their superstar if for no other reason than to placate the fans. The original nine-year, $198 million offer rejected by Pujols prior to the season's start might have seemed to them the last edge of prudence, so that going an extra year and $56 million further was beyond it. Given that the Pujols of the next 10 years is highly unlikely to be much more than a shadow of the player he's been in the previous 11, they probably made the right decision.
Folks in St. Louis are now wondering how the Cardinals will spread the unused $200 million in Albert's absence. They should not hold their breath. The windfall here is just the $14.5 million he'd been earning the last three years, for which even in his worst season he delivered five-six wins of value. Arbitration eligibility, payroll escalators and free agent defections that must be replaced are expected to boost the payroll by roughly $12 million even not withstanding Pujols. That's because the Cards have yet to fill their shortstop, back-up catcher and several relief pitcher positions as contracts run out on the incumbents.
St. Louis brass is going to look foremost to Allen Craig to fill the value gap as Lance Berkman slots in at first and he fills the vacancy in right. In parts of two seasons, Craig has delivered a respectable .290/.339/.503 at the plate with reasonable defense at a $450,000 salary. Projected out, that's about four wins of value over a full season, but "projected out" are two of the dumbest words in sports. It's fair to say that given what we've seen so far, Craig may reasonably be expected to replace a chunk of Pujols' value to the team, but by no means all.
The world isn't static, though, and the Cardinals slipped into the post-season by the barest of margins as a wild card, so they may need to improve in 2012. Fortunately for them, their main rival right now is about to lose their own slugging first baseman and two of the remaining teams in the division are in no position -- even if they were to sign Prince Fielder -- to contend. Adam Wainwright can be expected to provide a boost as he returns to the field after missing all last year to TJ surgery, but it's not unreasonable to expect that the loss of Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa might offset some of that.
My guess is that once they secure a shortstop, St. Louis will enter the 2012 season with a roster not every different from its current constitution. If contention smiles upon them, and the fans continue to fill the seats, they could acquire an asset at mid-season to further strengthen the club. By then, both Prince Albert, and his unspent salary, will be distant memories in St. Louis.
Folks in St. Louis are now wondering how the Cardinals will spread the unused $200 million in Albert's absence. They should not hold their breath. The windfall here is just the $14.5 million he'd been earning the last three years, for which even in his worst season he delivered five-six wins of value. Arbitration eligibility, payroll escalators and free agent defections that must be replaced are expected to boost the payroll by roughly $12 million even not withstanding Pujols. That's because the Cards have yet to fill their shortstop, back-up catcher and several relief pitcher positions as contracts run out on the incumbents.
St. Louis brass is going to look foremost to Allen Craig to fill the value gap as Lance Berkman slots in at first and he fills the vacancy in right. In parts of two seasons, Craig has delivered a respectable .290/.339/.503 at the plate with reasonable defense at a $450,000 salary. Projected out, that's about four wins of value over a full season, but "projected out" are two of the dumbest words in sports. It's fair to say that given what we've seen so far, Craig may reasonably be expected to replace a chunk of Pujols' value to the team, but by no means all.
The world isn't static, though, and the Cardinals slipped into the post-season by the barest of margins as a wild card, so they may need to improve in 2012. Fortunately for them, their main rival right now is about to lose their own slugging first baseman and two of the remaining teams in the division are in no position -- even if they were to sign Prince Fielder -- to contend. Adam Wainwright can be expected to provide a boost as he returns to the field after missing all last year to TJ surgery, but it's not unreasonable to expect that the loss of Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa might offset some of that.
My guess is that once they secure a shortstop, St. Louis will enter the 2012 season with a roster not every different from its current constitution. If contention smiles upon them, and the fans continue to fill the seats, they could acquire an asset at mid-season to further strengthen the club. By then, both Prince Albert, and his unspent salary, will be distant memories in St. Louis.
b
No comments:
Post a Comment