The Future Is Never

In the spirit of declaring their intentions for 2012 and beyond, the Oakland A's have once again cast their lot with the future. The A's are the team of the future and have been for a decade, I'm afraid.

Billy Beane's franchise is hamstrung, playing in an anachronistic multi-use stadium in a demographically-challenged city on the wrong side of the Bay. Perpetually cash-strapped, Oakland brass have made a habit of shipping out their studs as they approach market cost for the next strata of studs from other teams' minor league systems.

The problem with this approach is that it means the A's are constantly sacrificing the present for the future. As soon as the future arrives it becomes the present and the team strips down again. Lather, rinse, repeat . . . and never get out of the shower.

All this follows a pair of trades that cost Oakland accomplished young starters Trevor Cahill (30-22, 3.57 in 404 innings over the last two years) and Gio Gonzalez (31-21, 3.18 in 403 innings over the last two years) for a gaggle of prized farmhands.

Beane was once master of this universe, before a great shift in the stat-scout continuum altered conditions. For one thing, The Athletics had better players to trade and a better team remaining then. The likes of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder et. al. yielded proven Major Leaguers like Dan Haren, Rich Harden, etc. And those new players inherited a playoff squad that boasted talents like Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada.

Maybe more impactful was the loss of Beane's sabermetric edge. Where once he could lord over his GM counterparts with superior understanding of the value of OBP, the fungibility of closers, the effect of BABIP on performance, and so on, that information is now standard issue in every front office in baseball. The gaping chasm in insight that Beane once enjoyed no longer exists. Even marginal advantages are difficult to come by, fleeting in nature and a mere pittance in impact compared to Oakland's serious lack of revenue.

The A's have been posturing for a new ballpark -- most likely a Cisco Systems-sponsored field in downtown San Jose -- since the Clinton Administration. Beane may be banking on that finally coming to fruition by 2015, with its attendant boost in attendance and revenues, possibly coinciding with the emergence of a stable of top prospects. It's all conjecture at this point, but  A's management likely knows something we don't.

One of Oakland's trading partners, the Washington Nationals, have loudly declared their commitment to the present. The acquisition of Gonzalez gives the Nats an intriguing big three in the rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Gonzalez. Backing them is a lineup with some assets, if not a coherent whole. Breakout first baseman Mike Morse, free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, homegrown star Ryan Zimmerman and a couple of solid middle infielders in Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond suggest the former-Expos are just a couple of key parts away from contention.

In some ways, the Nats offer the widest spread in possible outcomes in 2012. Strasburg is coming off a missed year and could be anything from still-rehabbing to again-dominating. Morse enters his age-30 season with just one full year -- last -- under his belt. Werth hopes to rebound from a .232/.330/.389 flop after signing a superstar contract. Hope springs eternal on a team whose best players boast youthful exuberance, if not a long curriculum vitae of success.

Washington's biggest problem may be the competition in the NL East. The Phillies are measurably better than the Nats going into the season, the Braves remain a daunting challenge and Miami has forefully demonstrated the same now-focused intentions as the Nats. With a second slot for also-rans in 2012, it may be the time to make that bold move.

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