I have two words for you on the NL MVP race: context matters.
If it didn't, the 2011 resumes of Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun would be nearly indistinguishable. Consider them side by side:
Braun: .332/.397/.597, 33 homers and 33 of 39 steals.
Kemp: .324/.399/.586, 39 homers and 40 of 51 steals.
Now consider the context:
1. Braun plays in a neutral park for hitting. Kemp plays in a ravine.
2. Braun is cocooned in the batting order in front of the #3 MVP candidate, Prince Fielder (.981 OPS) and slugger Corey Hart (.868 OPS), and behind Rickie Weeks (.818). Kemp swims alone in a vast ocean. There's not another .800 OPS wearing blue, and besides Andre Ethier, no one's even close.
In context, Kemp was a slightly better offensive force in 2011. That might not be enough for some voters to compensate for Braun's role as best player on a division-winning team. But here are two more words:
Defense matters.
Here's two more:
A lot.
Matt Kemp is a good fielder in the most critical outfield position, centerfield. Ryan Braun is not just a butcher, but a baker and candlestick maker in left field -- or wherever the Brews attempt to hide him. He reminds me of a woman on my co-ed softball team named Judy K. We called her Special K and played her behind the right fielder in an attempt to make her invisible. It wasn't necessary -- whenever the ball flew her way she vacated the space.
So Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun were both timed at 10 seconds in their leg of the 4x100-meter dash, but Kemp had to cover an extra five meters into a headwind and never drops the baton. It's kind of a chasm. Baseball Reference, which is actually pretty kind to Braun defensively, says Kemp was worth 10 wins compared to a replacement player; Braun was worth 7.7 wins. Two-point-three wins is a huge difference -- just ask the Braves and Red Sox. It surpasses the entire value of the Cubs' Carlos Pena, who pounded 28 jacks and had an .819 OPS.
Matt Kemp is the NL MVP regardless of how middling was the team around him or that he led the NL in RBIs. Braun, Fielder, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki all merit consideration -- in the same way that pizza merits consideration on Thanksgiving. It's a delicious choice generally speaking, but not in this case.
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2. Braun is cocooned in the batting order in front of the #3 MVP candidate, Prince Fielder (.981 OPS) and slugger Corey Hart (.868 OPS), and behind Rickie Weeks (.818). Kemp swims alone in a vast ocean. There's not another .800 OPS wearing blue, and besides Andre Ethier, no one's even close.
In context, Kemp was a slightly better offensive force in 2011. That might not be enough for some voters to compensate for Braun's role as best player on a division-winning team. But here are two more words:
Defense matters.
Here's two more:
A lot.
Matt Kemp is a good fielder in the most critical outfield position, centerfield. Ryan Braun is not just a butcher, but a baker and candlestick maker in left field -- or wherever the Brews attempt to hide him. He reminds me of a woman on my co-ed softball team named Judy K. We called her Special K and played her behind the right fielder in an attempt to make her invisible. It wasn't necessary -- whenever the ball flew her way she vacated the space.
So Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun were both timed at 10 seconds in their leg of the 4x100-meter dash, but Kemp had to cover an extra five meters into a headwind and never drops the baton. It's kind of a chasm. Baseball Reference, which is actually pretty kind to Braun defensively, says Kemp was worth 10 wins compared to a replacement player; Braun was worth 7.7 wins. Two-point-three wins is a huge difference -- just ask the Braves and Red Sox. It surpasses the entire value of the Cubs' Carlos Pena, who pounded 28 jacks and had an .819 OPS.
Matt Kemp is the NL MVP regardless of how middling was the team around him or that he led the NL in RBIs. Braun, Fielder, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki all merit consideration -- in the same way that pizza merits consideration on Thanksgiving. It's a delicious choice generally speaking, but not in this case.
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