The stathead universe is all atwitter (in some cases literally) over Ruben Amaro's latest contract monstrosity. The Phillies GM has thrown 50 million cheese steaks at Jonathan Papelbon for four years of closing.
Clearly, this kind of fiscal frivolity is a sign of the apocalypse. No relief pitcher is "worth" $50 million for pitching 60 innings-a-year, even 60 high leverage innings. Moreover, there is no more fickle bird than the closer. The Phillies know this all too well, having spotted Brad Lidge $38 million for three years during a stellar 2008 season only to watch him disassemble in '09 and '10. Over the contract's three years, Lidge rewarded the Phillies with a 1-11, 5.08 RA and 59 saves in 124 innings, with four trips to the DL as a special bonus.
Papelbon has been the second or third best closer in the majors over the last five years (16-16, 1.88 RA and 184 saves in 268 innings, plus a sterling 5.3 K/BB ratio). He's 31, the same age at which Lidge began his figurative journey south, but a different kind of pitcher who can withstand losing a tick or two on his fastball without heinous damage.
The larger point is that the Phils are all in for 2012 and maybe 2013. There's no point in crashing one of baseball's all-time great starting staffs on the shoals of Antonio Bastardo closing. (Man, that name is the gift that keeps on giving.) Inasmuch as every team over-values closers, the market has been set around where the Phils paid, so if they want a great closer, that's what it takes.
Could someone else -- say the A's -- produce a nearly-equal closer out of smoke for a-tenth of the price? Sure, but the Phils don't want the best value. They want the best player. They want a World Championship. That's why they eschewed a $44 million deal with Ryan Madson, the incumbent Philadelphia closer.
That's what separates the big revenue teams from the small ones. Small revenue teams set a spending limit and recognize that there's an opportunity cost to each acquisition. Teams like NYY, Boston and Philly pay what it costs to assemble the best club. And that's what Rueben Amaro is trying to do.
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4 comments:
True. But it still sticks in my craw. I liked Mad Dog. He widened up after breaking his toe like a juvenile idiot in SF in 2009. Pap doesn't feel like a Phillie to me, but we will see. I'd rather overpay for more offense after the last 3 post seasons. We still got to the WS with a horrific performance from Lidge in '09. And tho he did blow it in Game 4 you can't blame the pen for losses in '10 & '11.
Whatever works tho. I WANT MY CHAMS IN 2012!!!
Your chams quota may be one.
Do you really think that? Cmon now. What does your baseball gut tell you for 2012. What happened in the past matters not. The Phillies will be playing October basball in 2012. It's like a presidential election, they get a win ever 4 years... ;)
chamPs!
Ps- typing on an iPad sleep deprived has its consequences.
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