What We Know, Part II

The maniacal start of the moribund Cleveland franchise will be the subject of a future post. Projected for another sub-.500, they're tearing up the league. They merit their own investigation.

Today, we look at two teams that are -- at the quarter pole -- definitely what they appear, much to the chagrin of their fans. One is the San Diego Padres, a team that nearly won the NL West last year despite a lineup of pacifists who can't hit anything. The other is the Minnesota Twins, who have so far cornered the market on suck.

The Padres are fulfilling our expectations for 2011. At 21-31 as of this writing and under-scoring opponents by half-a-run per game, they are demonstrating that while their pitching has inevitably regressed this year, their bats remain limp noodles.

In 2010, pitchers by names like Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc improbably kept opponents off the scoreboard. Their performance seemed unsustainable -- even with a bullpen that brings cheddar every night -- and it was. The Friars still induce their share of goose eggs, as does their home field, but they're fourth in the league in ERA, not first.

That's not enough to counteract the most sluggish offense in the NL even before losing Adrian Gonzalez. Only two of their 13 batters with 50+ plate appearances have slugged .400 or more. Six of those 13 are on base less than 30% of the time, and that doesn't include shortstop Jason Bartlett's .300 OBP. The bottom line is a team slashing .226/.294/.333 and listing towards oblivion.

Higher expectations greeted your 2011 Twins, but they've evaporated in the AL's worst hitting, worst pitching and worst record. Sure, Joe Mauer's spending time on the DL, but that's what Joe Mauer does. Justin Morneau and Delmon Young haven't yet got untracked, but those are two head cases -- of different sorts -- whose performance never was guaranteed. DH Jim Thome hit 25 homers and posted a 1.036 OPS in part-time play last year, but that's not a reasonable expectation at 41; his four homers accompany a .792 OPS this year.

There's more room for improvement on the mound, particularly if Francisco Liriano's arm stops hurting. It's the bullpen, though, that shoulders most of the blame for their league-bottom 4.76 ERA: the top five relievers have ERAs of 4.88, 1.59, 7.63, 6.59 and 5.40. Closer Matt Capps is serving up two long balls per nine innings.

The big problem is this: even if the Twins aren't baseball's Cleveland Cavaliers, they're a mediocre outfit in a 17-33 hole. Even playing .600 ball the rest of the season -- which would require an invasion of body snatchers -- only gets them to 84 wins, a number unlikely to land them October games. Minneapolis brass should start shopping free agent contracts to teams in contention and get some relief and middle infield prospects for next year and beyond.

b