Memorial Day weekend -- one quarter of the season in the books. At this point, there are things we know and things we don't yet, to partially paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld.
One thing that has been settled: Jose Bautista is as real as a $100,000 bill. The Blue Jays' slugging right fielder came out of Ulanbataar to smash 54 homers last year and post a .995 OPS, 31% better than his previous best.
Bautista's real level of ability was a question entering the 2011 season. Is he the journeyman fourth outfielder of his previous seven years? Or is he the MVP-level five-tooler of 2010? Answer: neither, he's Barry Bonds without the cookies and cream.
Bautista not successfully executed a sacrifice bunt this year. Other than that, he leads the majors in everything that matters. His .502 on base average in 203 plate appearances is the best in baseball. So is his .801 slugging percentage. He's first in home runs, first in total bases, first n BB/K ratio. His hitting value over a replacement player is 50% better than anyone else's in the game. Bautista has already been worth five wins against a replacement player. Only 50 players reached that level over an entire season in 2010.
And he's "on pace" to hit 74 home runs. He gone yard 20 times and gone down on strikes 27 times. Now, Bautista is hitting a generous .321 on balls in play, compared to about .300 league-wide. But according to Fangraphs, even if he regresses to his projected performance the rest of the year, he'll end the season with a shiny .419 on base average.
It isn't entirely unprecedented that a player -- even at Bautista's advanced age of 30 -- suddenly achieves a new level of performance. Ted Kluszewski doubled his previous yearly home run total when he smacked 40 in 1953. He banged out 49, 47 and 35 the following three seasons. Carlos Pena did the same thing for the Rays in '07, when he delivered 46 pitches into the stands. He's hit 31, 39 and 28 since, with 28 coming despite a .196 batting average last season.
Still, if Bautista went nuts with the bat last year, he's stark raving mad so far in 2011. It's fun to watch and I hope it continues.
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