Lessons From A Single Game

Rockies-Phillies last week at Citizens Bank Park provided a vivid illustration of how little of the game pitchers control.

With the score knotted at one and runners on first and second, Placido Polanco saved Cole Hamels a charge against his ERA. Rockie second-sacker Alfredo Almezegar blasted a fastball between third and short that had RBI written all over it. A diving Polanco speared the ball and threw to first, ending the inning instead.

Leading off the top of the next frame, Philly fill-in second-baseman Wilson Valdez nabbed a slow roller making googly-eyes for the outfield grass and jump-threw a one-hopper to first. Ryan Howard swiped at the throw and clipped it, putting the lead-off man aboard. In making the play look harder than it was, Howard side-stepped an error. Any resulting run would have accrued to Hamels's discredit, a point he rendered moot by retiring the remainder of the side without incident.

Bottom of the eighth with Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa cruising against the scrapping Philadelphia lineup. After walking Valdez and converting Shane Victorino's sacrifice bunt into an out at first. De La Rosa bounced a curveball under Chris Ianetta's catcher's mitt, sending Valdez within 90 feet of home. Ianetta was correctly charged with a passed ball, but it's commonly understood that at Coors Field that's a wild pitch. Hometown official scorers are more reticent about assigning blame to the local boys.

The next batter, Jimmy Rollis, lofted a soft fly to shallow center, endangering the rally. But center fielder Ryan Spilborghs over-ran his approach and needed seven steps to unleash his throw, providing Valdez, not to mention Mama Cass, the requisite time to cross the plate safely with the go-ahead run. Two bad defensive plays cost the Rockie pitcher the loss.

Numerous morals float to the top of this soup. The most salient is how many unaccounted factors affect ERA and W-L. Over the course of a season, defense can easily add or subtract half-a-run of ERA -- the difference between an excellent 3.90 ERA and an average 4.40 ERA. It's the reason that RA, which doesn't bother with the semi-arbitrary distinctions between "good" and "bad" runs, is a more honest and no less accurate barometer of pitcher accomplishments than ERA.

It also demonstrates the more widely-understood weakness of defensive metrics -- even advanced ones. None of the current crop directly accounts for Howard's miscue, recognizes Spilborghs's indiscretion or provides any tools to weigh their relative merits. (All the advanced metrics credit Polanco with a play made, and since a lesser cornerman -- that is to say, everyone -- would have made no play there, Polanco's prowess is recognized. Over the course of a season, those plays add up to runs saved.)

For the time being, at least, defense will have to be consigned to the sport's murky netherworld comprising luck and other mysteries whose unlocking is years from being complete. In the meantime, it's important to distinguish results on the field that pitchers actually do control and those they don't, and to credit and debit them appropriately.

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