Predicting Alex Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira Switch Stat Lines

I never make predictions about who will win this, that or the other in baseball because the beauty of baseball is its unpredictability. (The corollary: I hate the financial structure that makes the Yankees a lock each year.)

To wit: look at all the players who have already eclipsed their 2009 accomplishments just a quarter of the way into the season. The best examples:

(Note: WARP is "wins against replacement player." This measures how much better a player performed compared to someone who could be picked up off the waiver wire. It includes baserunning, defense, etc. and takes into account position, ballpark, strength of opponents, etc. It's designed to be a catch-all measure of a player's value, stripping out the effect on him of his teammates and other external conditions. It's not a panacea, but a fine guide to a player's value. It's cumulative, so a player should have accumulated roughly one-quarter of last year's WARP.)

Carlos Silva
Last year:   33.7 IP    44H    11BB    9K    1-3 W-L    8.29 ERA    -1 WARP
This year:   65 IP      56 H   10BB   42K     7-0 W-L   3.31 ERA    1.3 WARP

Ty Wigginton

Last year:  11 HR   41 RBI   .277/.314/.400   -1.7 WARP
This year:  13 HR   32 RBI   .288/.369/.577   3.2 WARP

Kelly Johnson
Last year:   8 HR    29 RBI   .224/.303/.389   1.1 WARP
This year:  12HR    25 RBI   .253/.359/.554   2.4 WARP

Austin Kearns
Last year:   3 HR   17 RBI   21 R   6 2B   .195/.336/.305   0.2 WARP
This year:   3 HR   20 RBI   20 R   12 2B   .298/.372/.458   2.9 WARP

Jose Bautista
Last year:   13 HR   40 RBI   .235/.349/.408   2.3 WARP
This year:   15 HR   40 RBI   .247/.364/.586   2.7 WARP

Livan Hernandez
Last year:   184 IP    220 H    67 BB   102 K    9-12 W-L    5.43 ERA    0.2 WARP
This year:   61 IP      47 H     19 BB    27 K     4-3 W-L     2.08 ERA    2.8 WARP

Mike Pelfrey
Last year:   184 IP    213 H    66 BB    107 K    10-12 W-L    5.03 ERA    -0.6 WARP
This year:   64 IP      57 H     24 BB     41K       7-1 W-L       2.54 ERA    2.4 WARP

These players seem to fall into three distinct categories:

1. Guys who have figured something out or overcome an injury. Mike Pelfrey, for example is throwing a new pitch. Carlos Silva emerged from his two-year chrysalis. Austin Kearns has become more aggressive at the plate.

2. They're the same player, but they added a dimension. Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista are hitting the same way, but more of their flies are clearing the fences.

3. Guys who have been visited by the good luck fairy and haven't a prayer of keeping it up. I'm looking at you, Livan Hernandez. You still don't get out the fan enough and you still play for the Nationals. The hits will keep on coming.

Raise your hand if, before the season started, you had Ubaldo Jimenez, Jaime Garcia and Jeff Nieman on your Cy Young Watch List. Stand up if you foresaw Vlad Guerrero bouncing back into MVP-style status. Dance the jig if you thought Jose Bautista and Ty Wigginton would out-homer ARod and Albert Pujols.

Predictions...hunh!...what are they good for?....Absolutely nothing! (Good God, y'all!) Say it again...

It's a great game...and they play it again tonight.

b