Bottom of the Second

If the MLB season were a single game, we'd be in the bottom of the second inning. That's our barometer when determining whether a team can bounce back or print playoff tickets. 

Certainly if your team is behind 7-0 in the second inning, you'd be well-advised to bring in your 12th pitcher and let him eat innings, results be damned. No point in burning up your set-up guy for this disaster, right? 

At the same time, being down 2-1 in the second really doesn't tell us much. We could win this contest just as easily as lose it. Don't panic; stay the course.

In the case of the Boston Red Sox, they're down 4-2 in the second. It's certainly not an insurmountable lead -- under ordinary circumstances. The problem is, they're facing the other team's best pitcher, their own starter has used 58 pitches and his left-fielder is playing left-out with a tweaked hammy. Suddenly the two-run deficit looms larger, and the manager is going to have to make some decisions soon.

Disembarking from this tortured metaphor, the Sox teeter at .500, trailing New York by six and Tampa Bay by 6.5. The Yankees are as deep as the ocean. The Rays are young and nubile. Neither appears ripe for the picking, and they have walked over Boston (8-2) so far this season.

Moreover it's a worst case scenario for David Ortiz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Neither is likely to be an asset this year, or ever again. The team that won two World Series with Manny  and Big Poppy striking the fear of Beelzebub into opposition hurlers now sports Youklis and Pedroia as their top performers. They're fine players both, but pitchers' pants stay dry when facing them.

The Saux can't compete with the behemoths ahead of them with their rotation as currently constituted. If Josh Beckett (7.46 ERA) can't get it together, they are a team with three starters. The Rays' fifth starter -- Wade Davis -- has outperformed the entire Bosox staff, and there's more where he came from.

This was supposed to be Theo Epstein's foray into pitching and fielding, but the team is allowing 5 1/2 runs per game. The two outfield  defensive whizzes -- Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron -- are mangled. Gold Glove hot cornerman Adrian Beltre has channeled Dr. Strangeglove  and the best catching days of Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are behind them.

It doesn't get any better soon. The schedule serves up Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay this month.

So are the Red Sox doomed in 2010? Certainly not. The Yankees have coasted through a panoply of injuries and show no signs of deceleration. But the Rays might come back to earth and give Boston a chance to reel them in, and they lack the resources to acquire a key cog should they need it. For the Red Sox to exploit this possibility, they need to play much better going forward.

Boston's very astute front offiice is not going to panic, nor are they going to sacrifice the future for a futile swing at the present. I suspect they will give this team the rope to hang itself or swing across to the other side, as they will. They have enough talent to win and enough problems to show in a two-team race. Look for Theo to stay the course with one eye on 2011.

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