You can crunch the numbers all you like, but personnel decisions involve persons. Statheads need to keep that in mind when asserting their certitudes about the future performance of players in the league. It's something Pat Burrell reminded me of this weekend when he collected his walking papers from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Two years ago, I blasted the Phils for committing a $30 million dowry to 36-year-old Raul Ibanez for three years of declining offensive value and already-addled defense. Philadelphia, I noted, already had an immobile slugger in left field in 31-year-old Burrell, who could have been inked to the two-year, $16 million deal he got from Tampa Bay.
I had my reasons. Ibanez was five years older, had begun slowing down in the field and seemed to stand out in Seattle mostly because he was the only non-Ichiro hitter on the roster. He even lacked Burrell's stick in their contract year; Burrell, .875 OPS to Ibanez, .837. Finally, paying a guy eight figures for his age-39 year was almost certainly folly.
How'd that turn out? Burrell was spectacular in the field for Tampa -- from the DH position. Other than that, the Rays got less support from Burrell than from their jock straps. After setting the bar at ground level last year -- .682 OPS while missing 40 games due to injury -- Burrell began 2010 by crawling beneath it. The notoriously frugal Rays found it useful to cut him even though it meant eating $9 million.
Ibanez? He slugged 34 HR last season, made the All-Star team, posted an .899 OPS, shored up his glove work and helped the Phils repeat as NL champs.
How could I be so wrong?
First, it's worth pointing out that it wasn't quite so cut and dried even by the numbers. Burrell had been up and down for the Phils. The weaker league and hitters' park served as stat inflator during those years. So he was probably worse than he appeared. Ibanez moved in the opposite direction: from a pitcher's park in the tougher league to Citizens Bank Launching Pad. He could reasonably be expected to improve a bit, or given his age, keep his production steady.
Nonetheless, could anyone have predicted Ibanez's breakout and Burrell's breakdown? Well, apparently Philly management knew something about Burrell that led them to jettison him. His attitude, his work ethic, his injury history, his swing, something -- something the stats can't tell you. The Phillies looked at Pat Burrell and said to themselves, "we'd better get someone else in here, even if it costs us." And they were right.
In retrospect, Burrell wasn't the answer, but I'll stick by my assertion that three years of Ibanez isn't either. The Phils could have signed Adam Dunn and his .928 OPS for $16 million without the specter of a graybeard patrolling the outfield. (On the other hand, Dunn has all the defensive prowess of Lucy Van Pelt.) Last year's magic dust has worn off Ibanez; so far this season he's showing none of last year's pop. He's been a below-average hitter and fielder, and isn't likely to improve as he ages.
So let's say the Phils got one superb year, one palatable year and one forgettable year for their $30 million investment. Meanwhile, Pat Burrell delivered less than nothing for Tampa Bay's $16 million. Like choosing between John and Kate. Still, it shows that the numbers don't tell the whole story.
Lesson noted.
b
2 comments:
It's only too bad they couldn't get rid of Pat sooner. As for Rauuuul, he was never the same after coming back from a groin injury. He's getting better, though. When you already have Victorino way up there in RBIs, Rollins back from the DL, the $500,000/homer Howard, the best 2nd baseman in baseball, a red hot Werth and a man who can work the bat like Polanco, (not to mention Carlos Ruiz having a career-year) I think the Phils can deal with a luke-warm Ibañes, don't you?
For 2010, they're stacked.
Next year they have less room for error while the Marlins, Braves and Nats improve.
Post a Comment