How About That Momentum!

For all you momentum buffs, which is to say, you believers in UFOs, ghosts, the single bullet theory, and stimulus packages, I would offer a modest proposal.

Entering the NFL playoffs, the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints had combined to lose their last five games after winning their first 27. 

The San Diego Chargers had prevailed in their previous 11. 

Remember all the analysts pooh-poohing Indy and Norlins because they didn't have any momentum? And touting SD? I wonder what Super Bowl they'll be watching.

Here was the San Francisco 49ers' season: They won their first game. And their second. Lost their third. Won their fourth. Lost their next four. They had momentum going against them, right? But they won their next game, then lost, then won, lost, won, lost, won and won. The 49ers were twice as likely to lose if they won the game before, or win if they lost the game before. Did momentum take every other week off?

Here's the modest proposal: if you still think there is some magic force by which teams and individuals succeed because they succeeded the last time or two, I propose that you need your head examined.

A baseball player doesn't get a hit because he was safe in his last two at-bats. Teams don't win because they swept the previous three game series. They get hits, and win, because they're good, or lucky, or both.

That's not to say that success doesn't breed self-confidence, which leads to more success. But the concept of self-confidence has a name and it's not momentum. So let's let the momentum shibboleth rest in peace, okay?

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