Here's something every baseball writer and I will agree on: Albert Pujols will be a Hall of Famer. (Actually, if history is any guide, one or more baseball writer will decline to elect Pujols in his first year of eligibility, but since that will likely be their only opportunity, he will pass into the Hall without their imprimatur. This will say significantly more about the recalcitrant voter than about Prince Albert, but nothing we don't already know.)
Yesterday officially marked Pujols's 30th birthday. The tally on his career during his 20s is staggering and worthy of reflection. Superlatives, get ready for the workout of your lives. His inaugural season set the pace: at age 21 he mashed .329/.403./.610 with 47 doubles and 37 homers and played superb defense, split among third, first, left and right. That performance alone put him in elite company with all-time greats.
Back problems led to a sophomore slump -- .314/.394/.561 with a decline in doubles (40) and dingers (34), and more insidiously, a significant drop-off in defense. He played mostly leftfield that year, a waste of his enormous infield talent. It would be the last time Pujols's OBP would drop below .400. In fact, it would be the last time it would drop under .415. (Rickey Henderson had 20 years with OBP below .415.)
In his first nine years (he's actually not yet Hall eligible), the ghosts of Cooperstown accompanied the Dominican Cardinal. He has compiled a .334/.427/.628 batting line with 366 home runs and several earned Gold Gloves at first. According to MLB.com, Pujols ranks fourth in games played, third in home runs, fourth in RBIs, fourth in batting average, fourth in OBP and third in slugging average all-time among players in their 20s. The names around him read like a rakers' litany: Dimaggio, Ruth, Williams, Rodriguez, Aaron and Foxx. In his 20s, Willie Mays produced an OPS 99 points lower than Pujols's.
Assuming Pujols hasn't ingested illegal substances, which we can't, but about which he asserted he would never affront God so, Prince Albert stands supreme in baseball today, and has done so over the last decade. Baseball Prospectus calculates that Pujols has been worth 85.5 wins to the Cardinals relative to a replacement player, which is to say, he has contributed nine years of unmitigated MVP quality. Despite previous bouts with a balky back and a torn ulnar collateral ligament, he added an astonishing 12.7 wins to St. Louis last year. If you're wondering what got into the Cardinals during an '09 season that promised mediocrity but delivered a division title, they just got themselves more Albert than usual. He kissed a .500 season and it turned into 94 wins. That's historic. BP estimates that Pujols's on-field play alone was worth roughly $36.5 million to St. Louis last year.
How will Pujols fare in his 30s? His back is an ongoing concern, but his athleticism and batting eye suggest that his peak will linger and his decline will be slow and gentle. Unlike Frank Thomas, who compiled similar early career stats and then tailed off, Pujols has tremendous defensive value and sufficient secondary skills to withstand a slowing of his bat.
Except this.
Albert Pujols is 30 like Charles Barkley is a ballerina. His family in the D.R. claims that he graduated high school early. Uh-huh. And I needed marijuana in college for my arthritis pain.
If instead, Pujols is 32 or 33, his prime has danced its last jig. If he's 32 or 33 now, we'll be evaluating him at 36 and 37 when he's really pushing 40. The whole equation is altered.
Which is to say, Albert Pujols's place in history will be at issue. We might debate whether he was Gerhig's equal, or Foxx's or Thomas's. But there won't be any debate about the Hall of Fame.
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