17 December 2009

Pre-thinking Analysis

In the neighborhood in which I grew up, populated by a heterogeneous mix of wise guys, it was a rare occurrence indeed to achieve the completion of any sentence that began with an exceedingly stupid premise.

For example, suppose while analyzing the Phillies' decision to trade for Roy Halladay and jettison Cliff Lee, someone on your street were to note that Cliff Lee was a great "post-season pitcher." The vapidity of this statement could not be overlooked or remain unchallenged. Barely would the speaker have reached his sentence's conjunction than the entire assembly would be riding him verbally for his badly-misfiring neurons. Were he to persist, a noogie, wedgie or purple nurple would be in order.

Evidently, street rules are not in force on sports talk radio. All yesterday my radio spat out the knuckleheaded assertion that Philly was giving up a "great post-season pitcher" for one who had not proven himself, as if this were a viable measurement like team winning percentage or doubles. I kept waiting for someone knowledgeable to interject a polite point of information that, well, "post-season pitcher" is a figment of the host's imagination.

To be sure, Cliff Lee has been a lights-out pitcher in the post-season -- that is, in the FIVE PLAYOFF GAMES he has pitched during his six-year career. He's been a lights-out pitcher for most of the past two seasons, when he's posted ERAs of 2.54 and 3.22. Which proves only the following: Cliff Lee is good.

News flash: Roy Halladay's not too shabby either. You might just say he's the mound king of the junior circuit, or was until joining Johan Santana in the NL. In his 12-year career, Halladay has a 3.43 ERA with three times as many strikeouts as walks. If you want to know what kind of "post-season pitcher" Halladay would be, allow me to give you a preview: if he pitched enough innings, he would have about a 3.43 ERA with three times as many strikeout as walks.

Of course there are other variables in the post-season. It always comes at the end of a 162-game schedule, so players who wear out might have less success in the playoffs. The competition tends to improve, so players who feast on the league's bottom-dwellers and hangers-on would tend to scuffle. The weather begins to turn cold and there are longer layoffs than during the regular season. Probably least of all the differences is the one sports talk hosts weigh most heavily: there is a lot riding on the outcomes of post-season games.

The spotlight cuddles up to some personalities and repels others, but any athlete who has advanced to the Major Leagues has been through hundreds of "critical" games. It's really quite a rare player who "chokes" or "steps up." Mostly, players play, and the vagaries of the game sometimes loom larger when we're paying special attention than when we're not.

I'll probably have something to say about this intriguing array of interlacing trades, but you can be sure it won't have anything to do with who is a good "post-season pitcher."
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