The Standings

One of the great beauties of baseball is that it's so unpredictable. Every year, a team or two that appear moribund make play0ff runs. The Rays and Cards of '08 come to mind. Conversely, some squad that's stacked, tanks. 2008's Detroit and Cleveland are exemplars.

Paradoxically, that makes pre-season projections so much fun. The one below is from Baseball Projection, which uses a system called CHONE (named facetiously for creator Sean Smith) to project the most likely performance from each player in the league, estimate his playing time, and then aggregate all that for each team. It calculates the resulting runs scored versus runs allowed and then uses the Pythagorean formula to project the team's record.

The shortcomings of this method (or any projection made prior to Opening Day) are so transparent as to belie comment. But the projections do give us a guide as to which teams appear stonger or weaker than you might have thought at first glance. Keep in mind that these projections don't include Manny Ramirez's signing or any trades/signings/injuries after February 24.

American
East	W	L		Central	W	L		West	W	L
Yankees	97	65		Indians	90	72		Angels	85	77
Red Sox	96	66		Tigers	85	77		A's	81	81
Rays	89	73		Twins	79	83		Mariners	78	84
Blue Jays	75	87		White Sox	73	89		Rangers	72	90
Orioles	74	88		Royals	72	90
National
East	W	L		Central	W	L		West	W	L
Phillies	87	75		Cubs	88	74		Dodgers	82	80
Braves	86	76		Cardinals	83	79		Padres	80	82
Mets	86	76		Reds	82	80		D-Backs	79	83
Marlins	75	87		Brewers	81	81		Rockies	78	84
Nationals	74	88		Pirates	73	89		Giants	77	85
				Astros	72	90

Remember that these are "average" projections; i.e., there is an equal chance according to this system that each team will win either more or fewer than the number of games listed. So, for example, the Rays may have more upside than the Yanks and Sox, but more downside as well. 89 wins is the midpoint.

I personally believe that the Mets should be a narrow favorite in the NL East and that the Indians and Mariners are vastly overrated by this system. I think the Royals are improving and would bet real American legal tender that they don't have the worst record in baseball. I'm surprised by the lack of respect for the Cubs in a weak NL Central, but not surprised at all by the tossup nature of the NL West.

Take it for what it's worth.