07 February 2009

All ARod On Steroids Radio

As I write this, the local sports talk stations have become the All ARod On Steroids stations, the way my favorite music station played all John Lennon songs the day he died. The difference is, Lennon died that day, and he was the only person to die in that particular event.

In ARod's case, assuming there is a case, his positive test took place
six years ago and he was among 103 other Major Leaguers to turn up traces of steroids in their blood. We've known all along that 8-10% of players had tested positive. It was the justification for individual drug testing in the first place.

We're acting now as ifwe believed that only scrubs were involved. If only the Adam Hyzdus and Mike Defelices of the game had boned up, we wouldn't be crediting steroids with improved performance.

Even then, the question has to be asked: so what? Steroids weren't against the rules prior to '03. If ARod juiced before '03 and has tested clean since, what's the problem? The system works, right?

That ARod may have tested positive in the preseason of '03 tells us little about what he did in '02 and before. Let's see if we can detect a chemical boost in his performance from his the record. The .298/.396/.600 line are his 2003 stats.


BA     OBP   SLG  OPS+
.358 .414 .631 160
.300 .350 .496
120
.310 .360 .560 136
.285 .357 .586 134
.316 .420 .606 162
.318 .399 .622 160
.300 .392 .623 158
.298 .396 .600 147
.286 .375 .512 131
.321 .421 .610 173
.290 .392 .523 134
.314 .422 .645 177
.302 .392 .573 150


Well, he definitely dipped in '04 to just 31% better than average, so he must have stopped doping then. And that proves that he was benefiting from performance-enhancement in the four seasons of .600+ slugging averages.

Except he proceeded to win the MVP in '05 and '07, recording the highest slugging average of his career in the latter, after baseball began suspending players for positive drug tests. So there's little evidence of anything in his record.

If talk of steroids gives you the vapors, here's a suggestion. Assume anyone who was any good between 1998 and 2005 was hopped up. Every MVP, every All-Star, every 30-HR hitter, every 200-strikeout pitcher. Now the next time a name comes out, you'll hardly notice.

It's instructive to reflect on that period in the world outside baseball and remember that Americans elected and re-elected a President who did blow and got caught drunk driving in years prior. And there's nothing in the record to suggest
his performance got any enhancement.

l

No comments: