The First Robin League

The Hot Stove League is threatening to drag into the First Robin League as major free agents remain on the market. The economic decline has obviously played a role there, but there must be something else at work.

Three of the most notable free agents still available are Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu and Manny Ramirez. I picked these three particularly because they're all outfielders and, in the case of Manny and Dunn, possess all the grace on land of a penguin. Here are their performance from last year:

Player G R 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+ HBP GIDP
Ramirez 153 102 36 37 121 3 0 87 124 .332 .430 .601 164 11 17
Dunn----158 79 23 40 100 2 1 122 164 .236 .386 .513 129 7 7
Abreu---156 100 39 20 100 22 11 73 109 .276 .371 .471 120 1 14

(OPS+ is a measure of on base percentage plus slugging average compared to league average. An OPS of 129 is 29% better than league average, which is excellent. An OPS of 164 is MVP territory.)

Manny and agent Scott Boras seem to have painted themselves into a corner, demanding five years and bailout-sized dollars. Ramirez is still a one-man offensive wrecking crew, to be sure, but he's offensive in other ways and young children should avert their eyes when he's afield. The idea of team chemistry is vastly over-rated, but front offices know that bringing him on requires buying Tylenol in bulk. And of course, he's 37 and would be 42 by the end of a five-year deal. Signing him to anything more than two years is sheer folly, and it helps to have a centerfielder who can yell loud enough to wake the leftfielder when the ball is struck his way.

The case of Adam Dunn is an enigma. Ripped by Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi last season, he is viewed as lackadaisical and inert in the field and has generated little interest around the majors. This is a 28-year-old who has recorded 40 or more home runs and .365 OBP or higher each of the last five seasons. Six-and-a-half foot boppers like Dunn don't tend to age well, but he should continue to provide terror at the plate for the next three years, at least. Bat him after Jose Reyes and David Wright and ahead of Carlos Beltran (or the other way around) and enjoy the basepath merry-go-round.

Apparently some AL clubs would like to sign him to DH but he has rejected moving off left field. That certainly limits his appeal, but there are still plenty of teams that can swallow is defense for 40 HRs and a .386 OBP. For an interesting and spot-on Dunn reckoning, link below to MLB.com.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090120&content_id=3750928&vkey=news_ml

Bobby Abreu is neither defensive liability nor slugger, but he's still an impressive offensive asset. Because he seemed to fall off the table following the '05 Home Run Derby, it's easy to assume he's older than 34. This is a guy who batted safely more than 39% of the time for nine straight years until 2006. Whether his decline is age-related, Yankee-related or Bronx-related we'll soon find out if someone else signs him. Unlike Dunn and Manny, Abreu has a howitzer of an arm and thus has some defensive value as a right fielder. A lot of teams can use this guy.

Of course, the other side of the equation may be the sticking point. Dunn made $13 million, Abreu $16 million and Ramirez $19 million last year and they may all be looking for raises to compensate for the 35% decline in their stock portfolios. The market -- yes, even the baseball labor market -- does seem to have contracted this year, as evidenced by Andy Pettite and Jason Varitek's flashy new pay cuts. Dunn, Abreu and Ramirez may need time to accept that before they sign less lucrative deals. Donations in their behalf can be sent in care of my home address.