Sandy, Don't Re-Sign Daniel Murphy!

Back in 2010, the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez, up until then a .500 pitcher with a four ERA, began unraveling the Colorado mound curse. The Dominican righty entered the All-Star break an untouchable 15-1, 2.20.

I remember listening around that time to a baseball reporter -- either Buster Olney or Tim Kurkjian, but in either case a respected and knowledgeable scribe -- discuss at length the changes Jimenez had made in his approach and execution, and the challenge of hitting his mid-90s heat and quality secondary pitches. The reporter extolled the mechanical changes Jimenez had made that had catapulted him to present and future glory.

Had he entered free agency right there, teams would have been waving Woodrow Wilsons at him.

Very nice.

And then the rest of Jimenez's career happened. He went 4-7, 3.80 in the second half, and has authored a 50-58, 4.43 resume since, allowing nearly a runner-and-a-half per inning.

Which brings us to Daniel Murphy, a perfectly good second baseman known for intelligent play and a nice batting average, but not much power or defense. Since his return from injury in 2011, he has produced 13.3 offensive wins against replacement in five years. That's a solid starter. (Baseball Reference says he's given back three wins with the glove during that time, but we're dubious about defensive metrics.)

In the wake of Murphy's sudden liftoff in the playoffs -- a record seven homers in six straight games against the best pitchers the NL has to offer (excluding his own staff) -- the narrative has turned. Suddenly we're scouring Mets lore for the source of this outbreak, and the slight increase in power. (He hit 14 homers this year, one more than in 2013, and recorded a .449 SLG, one point higher than in 2011. The small uptick in muscle accompanied a small downtick in batting safely, resulting in a fairly typical Murphy season.)

Several sources have documented that hitting guru Kevin Long rejiggered Murphy's setup, keeping his hands lower, bending his legs deeper and starting his leg lift earlier. Perhaps as a result, he popped eight home runs in August and September, and then seven more in nine games before entering the World Series. The implication, of course, is that the slugging is now a Murphy trait.

And maybe it is, but that's not the way to bet. Daniel Murphy enters free agency as a 31-year-old future former-keystoner. It's far more likely that we've seen his best than the beginning of something new. One front office wag speculated to Sports Illustrated that his activities in the NLCS had raised his price to five years/$75 million.

To the Mets, that should sound like Bernie Madoff with a stock tip.

Sandy Alderson now has five sterling starters and a golden closer, all 27 or under, around whom to build for future World Series runs. While a $10 million, 280-pound boulder comes off the payroll, the lineup is still wanting, particularly if the straw that stirred this season's drink, Yoenis Cespedes, seeks Bartolo Colon's weight in gold. One way or another, the Mets need to pony up for a reliable middle-of-the-lineup hitter or they could suffocate on 2-1 losses again the way they did through July.

For a franchise with limited resources, a host of arbitration raises to contend with and that one big need, Daniel Murphy on a long, fat contract is not the prescription, particularly if Wilmer Flores can cover the keystone.

Absent a natural replacement, should the Mets re-sign Muphy? Sure, for three years at a reasonable price, while they look for reinforcements as he ages. But breaking the bank for Daniel Murphy? Please. His leg kick isn't that much earlier.

Now You See Him; Now You Don't

"Past results are not indicative of future returns."

It's the standard caveat rolled out by every mutual fund, after touting its polymath insights and market-beating deliverables. And it's part of the fine print we ignore while pouring our life savings into Bernie Madoff's trough, or the Parkcentral Hedge Fund.

The retirement this week of Brandon Webb reminds us that everyone who makes a living firing a baseball overhand should wear a tag with the same warning.

Webb is a strong-armed, 230-pound right-hander who commanded the mound from 2003-2008. He hurled more than 1300 innings over six years for the Diamondbacks to the tune of a 3.26 ERA, a Cy Young and two runner-ups. In short, he was a stud on a Hall of Fame path.

Then, in his first start of 2009, a funny thing happened to his shoulder. Well, not funny if you're Brandon Webb, or the guy cutting the checks owed to him for 2009 and 2010, which totaled $15 million. Four innings into the '09 season the Arizona workhorse was done for the year.

And for 2010.

And for 2011.

And for 2012.

And now, for evermore.

After five 200-frame seasons, the fraying of Brandon Webb's labrum and rotator cuff prevented him from tossing another MLB pitch. He tried a comeback in '11, but 12 unproductive Double-A innings put him back under the knife and on the DL.

Think back to Opening Day 2009. Brandon Webb's on the hill, arguably the best pitcher in the game entering his age-30 season. He wears consistency, sturdiness and reliability like a second glove. Any reasonable extrapolation of his career, even if you build in decline, suggests a solid return on investment.

And then, poof!

It's should serve as a a red flag to teams thinking of handing the car keys to their seemingly-indestructible ace pitchers. The Mariners are poised to guarantee Felix Hernandez a week of federal budget deficits for his next, undoubtedly awesome, seven years of service. If you were going to bet on anyone to deliver for that long, King Felix would be the guy.

But so was Bernie Madoff.