"Past results are not indicative of future returns."
It's the standard caveat rolled out by every mutual fund, after touting its polymath insights and market-beating deliverables. And it's part of the fine print we ignore while pouring our life savings into Bernie Madoff's trough, or the Parkcentral Hedge Fund.
The retirement this week of Brandon Webb reminds us that everyone who makes a living firing a baseball overhand should wear a tag with the same warning.
Webb is a strong-armed, 230-pound right-hander who commanded the mound from 2003-2008. He hurled more than 1300 innings over six years for the Diamondbacks to the tune of a 3.26 ERA, a Cy Young and two runner-ups. In short, he was a stud on a Hall of Fame path.
Then, in his first start of 2009, a funny thing happened to his shoulder. Well, not funny if you're Brandon Webb, or the guy cutting the checks owed to him for 2009 and 2010, which totaled $15 million. Four innings into the '09 season the Arizona workhorse was done for the year.
And for 2010.
And for 2011.
And for 2012.
And now, for evermore.
After five 200-frame seasons, the fraying of Brandon Webb's labrum and rotator cuff prevented him from tossing another MLB pitch. He tried a comeback in '11, but 12 unproductive Double-A innings put him back under the knife and on the DL.
Think back to Opening Day 2009. Brandon Webb's on the hill, arguably the best pitcher in the game entering his age-30 season. He wears consistency, sturdiness and reliability like a second glove. Any reasonable extrapolation of his career, even if you build in decline, suggests a solid return on investment.
And then, poof!
It's should serve as a a red flag to teams thinking of handing the car keys to their seemingly-indestructible ace pitchers. The Mariners are poised to guarantee Felix Hernandez a week of federal budget deficits for his next, undoubtedly awesome, seven years of service. If you were going to bet on anyone to deliver for that long, King Felix would be the guy.
But so was Bernie Madoff.
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