Rethinking Lou Brock's Hall of Fame Career

Lou Brock was a gentleman and a scholar. And a slap-hitting base thief. He is on the right side of one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. As part of that second wave of black players to join the Majors -- his rookie season came 14 years after Jackie Robinson threw open the gates -- Brock brought style and panache to a 19-year career.

A stalwart of three World Series teams, Brock led the NL in base swipes eight times and at one point held the record for steals in a season with 118. He scored 100+ runs seven times and batted over .300 in eight seasons, finishing within three points or less three more times. 

For all this, Lou Brock's likeness smiles brightly upon visitors to Cooperstown, voted that honor in his second year of eligibility.

Tim Raines stands on the precipice of Hall induction in his last

year of eligibility. Raines and Brock had nearly identical batting averages, and while Raines swiped 30 fewer bases he also slugged 15 points higher. Like Brock, Raines was a left fielder not particularly known for his defense despite the burning rubber.

But here's the difference:

Lou Brock didn't walk much. That's a problem for a punch-and-judy leadoff hitter. His lifetime .343 OBP was good, better than average, but not table-setting material. For his career, Brock sported an OPS nine percent better than average. Keeping in mind that average includes all the weak-hitting middle infielders and backstops in baseball, Lou Brock was barely an average left fielder.

Rock Raines earned almost twice as many free passes as Brock in fewer plate appearances, giving him a .385 OBP.  His OPS, despite playing half his career in knee-killing Stade Olympique, shone 23% above the median.

Defense!
I glossed over their fielding ability earlier. The metrics suggest Raines was about average in the pull corner for his entire career, about where Brock measured until he turned 30. For half his career, he rated in the butcher category. Brock lost twice as much value from his glove as Raines. (Baseball Prospectus even less sanguine on Brock.)

Then there's the matter of steals. Raines ran into outs 161 fewer times than Brock. That's a huge difference -- about 10 wins against replacement over the course of their careers.

Even without those 10 runs, Raines was still the vastly better player. According to Baseball Reference, Raines earned 69 WAR over his career and Brock just 45 -- about the same as Amos Otis. That 53% gap is the difference between surpassing the average left fielder's Hall of Fame WAR (65) and falling well short.

Why Is Lou Brock a HOFer?
We value what we measure -- in baseball and in life. Because we measured this relatively insignificant skill -- base stealing -- baseball observers in the 60s and 70s vastly over-rated Lou Brock. In addition, we didn't know how to leaven batting average with on base percentage, so Brock's pedestrian OBP was overshadowed by his excellent batting average.

We know better now, and that's why Raines's Hall support rocketed up to 70% in his penultimate year on the ballot. He has none of the milestones like 3,000 hits (he was too busy walking) or an MVP. He's simply the second best leadoff hitter of all time.

Lou Brock was nothing like that. If he were on the ballot today he wouldn't sniff the Hall.