Good Luck With That Cy Young Vote

There are roughly 16 games left in the MLB season as this is being written, and if you know who should win the Cy Young Award in each league, you deserve a prize with the name of dynamite's inventor on it.

In the old days it was easy: find the guy with the best won-loss record and a reasonable ERA and cast your vote. But today we are cursed with knowledge, and the more we know about pitching performance, the less we're able to distinguish top pitchers.

Let's take a look at the top contenders, first in the NL:

(ERA+ adjusts for the ballpark; FIP adjusts for defense. Bold indicates league leaders.)

• Kyle Hendricks, 15-7, 2.03, 173 Inn, 157 K ERA+ 197, FIP 3.38
• Jon Lester, 17-4, 2.40, 184 Inn, 179 K, ERA+ 167, FIP 3.46
• Noah Syndergaard, 13-8, 2.43, 174 Inn, 205 K, ERA+ 165, FIP 2.26
• Madison Bumgarner, 14-9, 2.66, 206 Inn, 231 K, ERA+ 153, FIP 3.20
• Tanner Roark, 15-8, 2.75, 193 Inn, 157 K, ERA+ 152 FIP 3.67
• Max Scherzer, 17-7, 2.78, 211 Inn, 259 K, ERA+ 150, FIP 3.09
• Johnny Cueto, 16-5, 2.86, 207 Inn, 181 K, ERA+ 143, FIP 3.06
• Jake Arrieta, 17-6, 2.91, 179 Inn, 171 K ERA+ 137, FIP 3.49
• Jose Fernandez, 15-8, 2.99, 174 Inn, 241 K, ERA+ 131, FIP 2.40

...and the wild card, Clayton Kershaw, 11-3, 1.81, 129 Inn, 155 K, ERA+ 214 FIP 1.70

In other words, according to ERA+ and FIP, the Cubs pitchers pitch in a good hitting park before the best defense in the game. Noah Syndergaard plays his home games in Supression Stadium but Jose Reyes at third and Yoenis Cespedes in center are catnip for opposition hitters.)

How Do You Value Kershaw?
The first thing voters are going to have to do is determine whether Kershaw is a candidate. He's the king of the hill, but it's not possible for him to be as valuable to the Dodgers in 129 innings as other top candidates are in 200 frames for their teams.

Kyle Hendricks has a real edge in ERA over the field, but fielding independent statistics suggest he's had a lot of luck on his side. Eight unearned runs burnish his ERA. 

Thor is the best pitcher by the advanced stats, but accounting for the shaker of salt we take them with pushes him back to the pack. Lester has the gaudy record and second best ERA, but he has the best team behind him. Fernandez has dominates since returning from injury with 12.5 punchouts per 9 innings and the second best FIP. But the non-fancy stats have him ninth in ERA.

Max Scherzer is near the top in everything, which might tilt the scales in the voting. He's pitched almost as many innings as the league leader and he paces the league in whiffs, with the sixth best ERA and the third best FIP (not counting Kershaw, who isn't eligible for the league lead in those categories.)

The last three weeks will likely decide things, but woe are those who must decide. 

We'll take a look at the AL next, but the song remains the same.