15 October 2011

What Does Jim Leyland Know and When Does He Know It?


Jose Valverde locked down 49 wins in 49 save opportunities this year, limiting opponents to a .470 OPS and 0.55 runs per nine. That's "Adele's singing voice" spectacular.

In non-save situations, he lost four times, allowed a .777 OPS and 6.95 runs per nine. That's "my dad's singing voice" painful.

It would seem that Valverde is one of those rare guys who needs the pressure cooker in order to thrive. He can't handle uncertainty. If he knows three outs ends the game, he's the best reliever in the league. Without that certainty, he can't make the 25-man roster.

Knowing this, Jim Leyland's move to order up his closer in the 10th inning of Game 4 with the score knotted at three was a head-scratcher.  Predictably, the result was something more dramatic. A walk, two hits and a grand slam later, the Rangers defeated Valverde's Tigers 7-3 to take a three games-to-one lead in the ALCS.

This is exactly the value add that a good manager should be bringing to the ballpark. He knows who's been practicing his bunting, who's secretly injured, who doesn't like to bat in cold weather, who gets amped playing in his hometown and who gets anxious. And whose head gets turned around in extra frames.

I wonder about Leyland's decision to play Alex Avila too. Something's wrong with his star catcher. I assume he's hurt, but whatever it is, he's batting .081 with a .290 OPS and 15 strikeouts in 40 plate appearances this postseason, even including Thursday night's dinger. He's swinging at pitches that land in Ontario. He's late on change-ups. Give the poor guy a break, Jim.

Leyland's lineup construction has also come under some fire. In Game 3, he batted light-hitting Don Kelly fifth and deep threat Jhonny Peralta sixth and against righty Colby Lewis. Kelly swings lefty, but Peralta's splits against right-handers are actually better than against lefties and far better than Kelly's. The result was that cleanup hitter Victor Martinez had no protection in the lineup, particularly when a lefty reliever entered the game.

I can see why players love Jim Leyland. He's honest and up-front with the guys. He has their back. He hugs them or tongue-lashes them, depending on what they need. But in-game decisions are part of the game too, and I haven't seen a lot of mastery there.

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The team with the best home record in baseball returns to their Milwaukee lair needing one win to force a deciding game. Sounds like anyone's series to me. This is what my newspaper calls "Cardinals on verge of clinching." 

Three-oh, you're on the verge of clinching. Three-two, no. You've got an edge.

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At the risk of tooting the Braindrizzling horn, Doug Fister and Mike Napoli are a pair of playoff stars touted during the season for their unheralded value. Napoli in particular was excoriated for his defensive deficiencies, but he has made some nice plays from the backstop position and embarrassed Miguel Cabrera on a play at the plate. 

Cabrera, out by two bases on a sacrifice fly, attempted to bowl Napoli over. The catcher responded by squatting and rolling back over the plate, leaving Cabrera to punch at air and flop on his face while being tagged out.

Napoli's 1.046 OPS (71% better than league average) at catcher, first base and DH speaks for itself. It's literally true that taking Napoli off the Angles and adding him to the Rangers gave Texas the division and left Anaheim out of the playoffs.

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