08 October 2011

Good Lottery Numbers


Fascinating and gratifying as they were, the first round of the playoffs demonstrate why more playoff teams would further drain the life out of baseball's post-season.

The results, in which the leagues' two best teams were eliminated right out of the gate, yet again speak to how baseball playoff series are a lottery. In all four division series, the losing team outscored the winning team. The result is that baseball's three best teams, three top payrolls, and best division are all completely shut out. In their place are a trio of intriguing and deserving teams  -- and one mediocre outfit. That team, the Cardinals, snuck into the proceedings thanks to a Georgia Peach of a collapse.

They also remind us of the torpid 2006 World Series featuring a desultory Tigers-Cards match-up. Both teams had stumbled through losing second halves with Detroit squandering their division title and St. Louis posting the second worst division-winning record (83-78) ever. An accurate accounting of the result is that the Tigers fumbled away the Series in five games. It was like reading a long Tom Wolfe novel with a letdown of an ending.

Adding another lesser team further degrades the value of the regular season and increases the odds that the best teams watch the championship on TV.

As for the 2011 championship, either a Tigers-Brewers or a Rangers-Brewers World Series would be a revelation. All three teams demonstrated consistent domination during the season. All three won their divisions by wide margins. A Texas-Milwaukee pairing would result in a first-time World Series winner. (Milwaukee won once in the '50s when the Braves of Aaron and Matthews played there, but only the Brewers side even to make an appearance was 1982's "Harvey's Wallbangers.") A Detroit-Milwaukee match-up would offer a classic Rust Belt showdown of cars against brauts. The Tigers last won the Series 27 years ago. (Also, Max Scherzer facing Ryan Braun would represent the first Old Testament World Series duel in my memory.)

The first round was exciting and there's no reason the second round and World Series can't be as well. Let's hope teams that deserve to be there -- i.e., not the Cardinals -- join the long and illustrious list of World Series contenders.
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