With Logic Like This, Who Needs Pretzels?

Among my many life duties, I teach college students how to write. But before they can write, they have to know how to think. This is a problem for most people, as the presidential nomination process has amply demonstrated.

In the course of my class, I have learned that I must reconnoiter and teach logic. Most humans lack the ability to follow basic logic principles.

Every sportswriter and broadcaster should take a logic course. One can regularly see and hear spewed out on broadcast media and splayed across print media the irrational rumblings of supposedly learned persons.

With Chris Sale suspended for his sartorial critique, the White Sox went on a four-game victory binge. During an interview with a national baseball reporter, a national talk show host asked whether it's possible that the incident "galvanized" the team. The questioner's tone suggested that he understood how utterly ludicrous this notion was.

I won't belabor the point. You don't need it explained to you that even horrible teams have four-game win streaks in Major League Baseball, and that no incident can "galvanize" a team into four straight wins, particularly one where a popular teammate is reasonably suspended for cause.

In the great universe of random events, this is a mere twinkle. Correlation isn't causation. There's not a shred of evidence to support a "galvanized" clubhouse. And all that.

So here's the nameless national sportswriter's answer: he asked a teammate that very question and the teammate denied any connection between the suspension and the winning streak. "But you're right, it has sort of galvanized them. They're playing very good ball since then."

So to recap:
1. There's no evidence of a connection.
2. It's illogical that there would be one.
3. Four games doesn't mean anything in the first place. (It doesn't even necessarily mean they're playing well.)
4. A teammate denied there's a connection.
5. Conclusion from sportswriter: There must be a connection!

Keep in mind next time you hear the gospel according to some "analyst," "guru" or "insider extraordinaire" that those words are often substitutes for "person who thinks logically."

Did Trading Cespedes Ruin The A's?

A month ago, the Oakland A's celebrated the best record in baseball and a comfortable AL West lead with a trade that injected Jon Lester into a rotation already bolstered by Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel in previous deals. 

Billy Beane was rightly lauded, including here, for packing the rotation for a deep playoff run. And if the price of those deals was a bevy of prospects and Yoenis Cespedes, that seemed like a a good deal.

With the benefit of hindsight, we're now hearing the bleating, as if an outfielder with a .303 on base percentage is indispensable. The A's are 12-16 since jettisoning Cespedes, falling four games out of first. Offense has been the culprit: Oakland has hit .224 and scored just 3.6 runs/game in August. And that has led many to bemoan the trades.

Let's all say it together: correlation is not causation. 

The A's aren't scuffling because Yoenis Cespedes moved his 1,300-pound leg press and his out-sized reputation to Beantown. By slipping Stephen Vogt into the lineup at first and sliding Brandon Moss to the outfield, manager Bob Melvin positioned his team to maintain its punch at the plate. At the time of the trade, Vogt was out-hitting Cespedes by batting average, on base and slugging.

But since the moves, the entire A's roster has hit a wall -- and not much else. Moss is batting .178 with no home runs and 35 strikeouts in August. Derek Norris is batting .188; Coco Crisp, .191; Vogt, .222 and John Jaso, .149. Unless Cespedes is sticking pins in a John Jaso voodoo doll, he's unlikely the cause.

The odds say the A's will right the ship before the playoffs start, because they have too much talent to play this badly for long. Then, to kick off the postseason, they'll put the ball in Jon Lester's left hand. At which point, A's fans will forget about Yoenis Cespedes.

Two Morals In a Very Small Story

Here's a baseball story with two morals.

Corey Kluber notched his ninth win last night in Cleveland's 7-4 victory over Chicago. Kluber has been an All-Star contender based on a 9-6, 3.01 half-season that features good peripherals including a complete game and 4.5-1 K-BB ratio.

Last night was vindication for Boston manager John Farrell's decision to bypass Kluber for the honor. The righty from Stetson managed six innings while surrendering four runs on eight hits, two walks and a home run.

The Tribe tallied three times in the fifth to bail Kluber out of a deficit. Then the real bailing began. Relievers John Axford, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen shut the door over the final three frames, fanning six of the nine batters they faced -- all outs. That is, Cleveland's defense was asked to make all of three plays behind the trio of firemen.

Allen gets credit for a save, and why not: he struck out the side. Shaw and Axford receive bupkus, except the warm feeling that their work, combined with a potent Indian offense, secured Corey Kluber a "win." 

(In the interest of redundantly flagellating an equine corpse that long ago achieved rigor mortis, the Associated Press dedicated their first two game summary paragraphs to Kluber's sub-stellar performance and none to his successors.)

The morals of the story are familiar: 1. Pitching wins are the ultimate evidence that correlation is not causation. 2. If it's not measured it's not valued by the old fogies who still think RBIs are about "clutchness," but that doesn't mean we shouldn't value it.

Random Bits of Brain Matter

Mariano Rivera is now the all-time saves leader, but he's been the greatest closer of all-time for what, six years? That was 265 saves ago. In the 310 innings since 2005, Rivera has surrendered about two runs per nine and he's allowed fewer baserunners than innings pitched. In those six years, he's whiffed seven times as many batters as he's walked. 

Dude is 41, throws one pitch and still dominates.

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Atlanta Braves phenom Freddy Freeman leads all NL rookies in batting average, home runs and RBI, writes poetry with his glove at first ... and hasn't a chance to sniff the Rookie of the Year award. His teammate, Craig Kimbrel, has a lock on that hardware.

Kimbrel earned a save Saturday by fanning David Wright, Lucas Duda and Jason Bay in order in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game. He did allow a weakly hit foul ball.

Kimbrel has turned the best hitters in the world into Phyllis Diller. (I.e., ugly.) In 75 innings, Kimbrel has more saves than hits allowed (45 in 51 chances, compared to 44 hits). He's fanned 129. Wait 'til he gets some experience.

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The Phillies are 28-4 when Brian Schneider starts at catcher. His batting line makes you wonder what he does with the other arm: .171/.238/.261. All the cosmos' dark mysteries combined lack sufficient intangibles to make a .499 OPS hitter an asset to his team.

Correlation is not causation.

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Earlier in the season, you could have made a case that pitching would propel the Red Sox and Braves into the World Series. Today, pitching is the reason they're losing ground.

The Braves have lost Jair Jurrjens (2.96 ERA) to the DL for the season. Tommy Hanson (3.60 ERA) may join him. Derek Lowe (4.94 ERA; 10.13 in the last two weeks) might as well. That leaves Brandon Beachy and his 26 career starts as the number two starter behind Tim Hudson, and a who's who of Triple-A stars filling the rotation. That's not the pitching staff you want to send against Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart in the playoffs.

For Red Sox Nation, a playoff appearance would count as a small victory. Boston has frittered away nine games of an 11-game lead over Tampa Bay for the Wild Card, thanks to a tattered mound corps. Tim Wakefield (5.13 ERA) ran out of pitching utility 15 starts and two wins ago. Likewise John Lackey (6.13 ERA) the day he signed his contract. At least Dice-K had the good form to get hurt earlier in the season. Josh Beckett (2.50) and Clay Buchholz (3.48) liked that idea so much, they decided to join Dice-K despite excellent seasons. Both are back, but are their ankle and back ready? The only sure arm for Boston is Jon Lester (3.15 ERA).

If the Sox' answer to any question is Andrew Miller or Eric Bedard, the Yankees, Tigers and Rangers would like to raise their hands. The Rays may be the ones calling on them.

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