04 September 2011

Trading Away A Division Title


The Los Angeles Angels -- or the Anaheim Angels, but not both -- have been nipping at the heels of the Texas Rangers for the last American League playoff spot. Currently they are 3.5 games shy of the division crown. Think they miss Mike Napoli now?

During the off-season, the Angels flipped their slugging backstop, along with fourth outfielder Juan Rivera, to Toronto for outfielder Vernon Wells. At the time I inveighed against the deal from the L.A. perspective, but I didn't know the half of it. Back then, the focus was on Wells' $126 million/seven-year contract, which was choking Toronto like a hippo in a snake. 

The Blue Jays were giddy simply to remove the last three years of Wells from their throat. That they got something useful in return was like winning a three-way parlay. That they got better players than Wells and shed payroll must have left even Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scratching his head. Here's what Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal aptly said about the deal at the time: “Most teams try to get younger, cheaper and better. The Angels got older, more expensive and possibly worse.”

Then Anthopoulos added insult and more injury to L.A. by using Napoli as a chip to improve his bullpen, sending Napoli to the Angels' arch-nemesis in Dallas for reliever Frank Francisco. And now the Rangers are riding Napoli's bat to beat the Angels for the division.

For his $18 million, Wells is hitting .221/.256/.398 and proving that he's no longer, at 32, a center fielder with the glove or an outfielder with the bat. At the same time, the catchers replacing Napoli (Jeff Mathis and rookie Hank Conger), are hitting at about a Double-A level, costing the team three runs relative to a replacement player. (Mathis has consumed more than half the plate appearances from the catching position and contributed .177/.227/.256 with more strikeouts than total bases.)

For his part, Napoli has delivered .289/.386/.572 and added nearly four wins to the Rangers while spending about half his time at first base and DH. Did you catch that? Napoli is plus four wins and his replacements on the Angels are minus a fraction. That's more than the difference between the two clubs' positions.

It's not that simple, of course. For one thing, the Angels didn't like Napoli's defense and didn't see a place for him at first or DH. They thought they had Kendry Morales at first base. Though he's hurt, Rookie of the Year candidate Mark Trumbo has filled in ably (.256/.296/.480) while Bobby Abreu has been the definition of adequacy (.252/.356/.355) at DH.

For another thing, Texas still could use the right-handed yumminess provided by Francisco, who's served as closer in Toronto this year. That takes back half a win or so on the Napoli deal.

But there's still this: $18 million for a fourth outfielder. The Angels will still owe Wells another $36 million of Arte Moreno's money over the next two years as his skills further decline.

All in all, the Wells deal was every bit the disaster for the Angels that any sentient fan could have predicted. At the very least, it's likely going to cost L.A. a playoff spot this year, and with a mound triumverate of Dan Haren, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana, they would have been a dangerous draw.
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