As if to put a fine point on my post about the San Francisco Giants, they lost a weekend series to the Astros. The Astros. With all due respect to the denizens of our fourth largest city, that is a minor league team.
Having dispersed whatever bargaining chips they could (Michael Bourne, Hunter Pence, Jeff Keppinger) for prospects, the Astros are down to four Major League players: first baseman Carlos Lee and three pitchers, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and closer Mark Melancon. Lee is 35 and Rodriguez is 32 and will be again residing in Panama and the Dominican respectively the next time this team is relevant.
Houston is on pace to lose 107 games, but probably aren't even that good, since some of the wins they've banked are attributable to the play of the now-jettisoned trio named above. For the World Champs to succumb to this sorry squad suggests something is really rotten by the Bay. It's not too late for the Giants to regain their footing, but it's going to take a resurgence from Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Andres Torres, the parts that injected the critical offense last year but who have this year simply been offensive.
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The losingest franchise in baseball history is the first team to reach 81 wins this year and guarantee itself at least a .500 season. Here's what else the Phillies have achieved:
Over the last six years, the first team to 81 wins has ascended to the World Series five times and brought home the trophy three times. My first reaction was surprise at how well a team's record correlated with playoff success. But of course, that's not it at all. We're not talking about final records here, just records over the first 130 or 140 games.
What that statistic says, unless it's simply a quirk, is that the best team over the course of the season, regardless of their final record, is most likely to win playoff series. It gives further lie to the old saw about entering the playoffs on a tear. In fact, it's better to have the best three-quarters of the season and then coast the rest of the way. Align your rotation, rest your nicked-up regulars and don't worry about your final record or even the minuscule home field advantage.
The Red Sox and Yankees already know this, which is why you will not see a fight to the finish in the AL East. Whoever wins the division, c'est la vie. Both teams have bigger fish to fry.
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Just six of the 16 NL teams have winning records this year. Part of that is the AL's 131-121 inter-league advantage. Part is the hegemony of Philly, Atlanta and Milwaukee, all playing .590+ baseball. That every team within five games of .500 is below -- Washington, NY and Cincinnati -- is another piece of the puzzle.
Then there's one more piece. There should be one more team around .500. The Padres have outscored opponents this year ... and have won 12 fewer games than they've lost. Often that's a sign that your relief pitching is wanting, but Heath Bell is money and Mike Adams -- before he was traded -- was gold bullion.
Another explanation is a poor record in close games. San Diego has dropped 10 of 14 games in extra frames and 26 of 43 one-run games, while posting a winning record (14-13) in blowouts. A lack of depth could could be the culprit, as could a lack of professionalism. Padre batters turn into Madres in "late and close" situations, posting a putrid .228/.316/.304 line, while Padre hurlers are least effective (though still above average)in tie games.
Look for things to even out the rest of the way, particularly as minor league journeyman Jesus Guzman gets more starts at third. In his first 150 at bats this year he's smacked .333/.375/.547 and is already third on the team in home runs.
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The race for the NL MVP seems locked up in my mind, with Matt Kemp lapping the field. Shortstops Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki have been outstanding, but Reyes hasn't been on the field enough and Tulo's combination of average and power -- .371 OBP, 25 HR and 34 D, pales compared to Kemp's (.393 with 28 homers) in a tougher park. Ryan Braun, .398 with 24 HR, also combines power and average, but a butcher in left field needs to make up a lot of ground against an average center fielder.
The numbers seem even more definitive in the AL, but I'm not totally convinced. Toronto third baseman/right fielder Jose Bautista has been all-world this season at the plate, .316/.457/.639. with 35 home runs. But the numbers rankle me a bit.
First, Bautista did much of his damage in April and May, blasting 20 of his homers. In the last three months, he's hitting .280 with 15 home runs. Moreover, much of his value has come on walks. Since May, he's got more walks than hits.
Walks are important and under-rated in baseball, but they have diminishing returns. When your top slugger walks all the time, he's not slugging. It leaves other, less accomplished, hitters to drive him in. I don't begrudge Bautista his Bondsian OBP, but it doesn't seem quite as valuable as it otherwise might.
All this would be irrelevant if Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrain Gonzalez weren't killing it. The Grandy Man roams center, gets on base and hits moonshots at nearly Joey Bats' rate. He also runs like the wind, as does Ellsbury, whose 22 HR, 33 steals and stellar center field play warrant MVP attention. Gonzalez, .343/.403/.538, was an early threat, but he's hit two homers in six weeks and plays the least important defensive position.
All this is the long way of saying that Bautista and his remarkable 1.096 OPS remains the runaway leader, but I felt a lot more positive about him two months ago.
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