They're Playing His Vogelsong

Giants' manager Bruce Bochy has exercised his All-Star prerogative to add Giant starter Ryan Vogelsong to the game's pitching roster. At 6-1, 2.13, Vogelsong looks like a solid choice. But dig a little deeper and it seems Bochy might be looking silly by year's end.

Certainly no one, not even his optimistic manager, could have predicted success for the 34-year-old righty coming into the season. His 10-22, 5.38 record over parts of six major league seasons wrapped around a three-year stint in Japan rarely correlates to stardom. Vogelsong seems to have tightened his command and sharpened his fastball, but other factors weigh more heavily in his success.

First, the 6'4" Pennsylvanian has shared the mound with serendipity. His BABIP-against is an unsustainable .256 and a fifth of the runs against him have been deemed unearned. Account for those factors and Vogelsong's SIERA -- the ERA his pitching actually deserves -- is 3.68. That's quite a spread.

Add to that more shouts of "regression!" from the peanut gallery. He pitches in a low-offense ballpark that has jumped on the Vogelsong bandwagon with both feet. His ERA is 2.4 runs higher outside of Telephone Company Field. His last two starts also suggest the shark repellent may be wearing off. In those two turns, he's lasted just 11.2 innings, surrendering nine runs and eight walks while fanning 11.

Contrast this with the Unlucky Mariner, Doug Fister. The 27-year-old northpaw is a miserable 3-9 in front of Seattle's wet newspaper offense. In the nine starts in which Fister has relinquished two or fewer runs, he's a mere 2-2. In the five games in which the opposition has scored four or five runs (only one of those starts lasted less than seven frames) he's 0-5. That's what happens in front of teammates who "hit" .226/.294/.336. (The starting lineup features one above-average hitter - first baseman Justin Smoak. Three starters are below 50% of average.)

Fister's 3-1 K-BB ratio, low home run rate (.45 HRs per nine innings) and sustainable BABIP (.290) all testify to the veracity of his 3.02 ERA. Repeating that won't get him to .500 with a lineup full of glove-first second-basemen, but it should look a lot better.

In other words, a second-half-only All-Star team is a lot more likely to include Doug Fister than Ryan Vogelsong. The 3-9 pitcher has out-performed the 6-1 pitcher; we're just not trained to notice it.

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