The Stupor Bowl

Quick note on the Stupor Bowl:

I haven't the foggiest idea who will win or what the score will be of Sunday's game. I do know one thing: whatever the analysts say is going to happen, won't.

The guys who can explain dime packages and bubble screens, and who can remember in minute detail third quarter plays from the NFC title game 17 years ago, all own crystal balls made of lead. 

This is particularly true because they've failed to notice that the past isn't prologue. Each week is different. The best rushing team in the league gets held to 47 yards by the 28th best run defense. The quarterback who's passed 223 times without an interception gets picked off twice by a second-string cornerback. And so on.

When the experts tell you that Troy Polamalu or James Starks is the key to the game, or that the contest turns on how Pittsburgh's offensive line protects their quarterback, or on Aaron Rodgers' completion percentage on third down, just giggle. They're predicting the past.

Here's my prediction. Some guy I never heard of will make a key play. An unexpected turnover will loom large. Someone will do something he doesn't ordinarily do -- fumble, get sacked, commit pass interference. Most importantly, the game won't follow form.

None of this is suggested by what's happened before. But that's the point. We're talking about the future.

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