The Final Standings, As of Feb. 27

I present without prejudice the projected MLB standings from Baseball Prospectus. Remember that these projections are based on a million simulations of the season using their individual player projections.

         Team                             Win %          W             L          Div       WC     Playoffs

1	Boston Red Sox	.575	93.5	68.5	56.7%	25.3%	82.0%
2	New York Yankees	.566	91.4	70.6	36.4%	34.5%	70.8%
3	Tampa Bay Rays	.521	83.3	78.7	4.8%	12.7%	17.5%
4	Baltimore Orioles	.502	80.3	81.7	1.9%	6.3%	8.2%
5	Toronto Blue Jays	.469	74.3	87.7	0.2%	0.8%	1.0%
Rnk	American League Central	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct
1	Minnesota Twins	.512	83.8	78.2	33.5%	4.0%	37.5%
2	Detroit Tigers	.510	83.9	78.1	33.0%	4.2%	37.2%
3	Chicago White Sox	.508	83.6	78.4	30.4%	4.5%	34.8%
4	Cleveland Indians	.459	74.6	87.4	2.9%	0.5%	3.3%
5	Kansas City Royals	.424	68.6	93.4	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
Rnk	American League West	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct
1	Texas Rangers	.522	85.6	76.4	54.1%	2.9%	57.0%
2	Oakland Athletics	.513	83.2	78.8	36.2%	3.3%	39.5%
3	Los Angeles Angels	.477	77.2	84.8	9.0%	1.1%	10.1%
4	Seattle Mariners	.430	69.0	93.0	0.7%	0.1%	0.7%
Rnk	National League East	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct
1	Philadelphia Phillies	.561	91.3	70.7	57.9%	13.1%	71.0%
2	Atlanta Braves	.536	87.0	75.0	26.1%	15.8%	41.8%
3	Florida Marlins	.519	83.9	78.1	12.9%	10.0%	22.9%
4	New York Mets	.493	78.8	83.2	3.1%	3.1%	6.1%
5	Washington Nationals	.435	69.3	92.7	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Rnk	National League Central	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct
1	St. Louis Cardinals	.522	85.8	76.2	37.9%	6.0%	43.8%
2	Milwaukee Brewers	.524	85.2	76.8	32.6%	6.3%	38.9%
3	Cincinnati Reds	.503	82.4	79.6	18.7%	4.3%	23.0%
4	Chicago Cubs	.492	80.1	81.9	10.1%	2.9%	13.0%
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	.439	71.5	90.5	0.7%	0.1%	0.8%
6	Houston Astros	.420	67.5	94.5	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
Rnk	National League West	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct
1	San Francisco Giants	.557	90.4	71.6	55.0%	11.7%	66.8%
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	.537	87.3	74.7	28.7%	14.5%	43.2%
3	Colorado Rockies	.516	83.1	78.9	11.7%	8.3%	20.0%
4	San Diego Padres	.492	79.2	82.8	3.9%	3.4%	7.3%
5	Arizona Diamondbacks	.461	73.6	88.4	0.7%	0.5%	1.1%

What you see here is that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Rangers are all pegged at better than even odds to win their divisions. Including the Giants on that list surprises me.

The NL Central was pre-elbow implosion for Adam Wainwright; the updated projection leaves the Cards and Brewers in a statistical dead heat as co-favorites for the division, with Cincinnati a close third.

The Twins, Tigers and White Sox appear roughly equally likely to capture the AL Central (and then get obliterated in the ALDS), while the one-dimensional A's and Padres both score out around the .500 mark.

Finally, some good news projected for all you Baltimorons: BP can't decide whether you're mean projected winning total is just above or just below 81, but in any case, your favorite nine would cease to be the doormat of the division, much less the league.

Take all this for what's it's worth: slightly more than nothing. Statistical projections can't predict freak injuries or breakout seasons like Jose Bautista's 2010 power surge. Relief pitchers are notoriously unfathomable from one year to the next. Rookies are tough to project because of the apples-oranges comparisons to previous work. Mid-season trades muck around with pre-season prognostications. Finally, normal human psychology can play a big role in a team's 162-game performance (think a floundering squad just giving up, or a young group exploding out of the gate and feeding off that confidence.)

All that is what makes the game so much fun.

Still, food for thought...

b