Anomalies of Another Great Season

Some amazing notes from another amazing baseball season as it drips into its annual anti-climax.

1. Phlegmatic Arizona slugger Mark Reynolds is the Greg House of baseball. The Diamondback slugger is either a genius or colossal failure, depending on what aspect of the job you esteem. Reynolds is batting .198 and has 208 strikeouts. He is three games away from becoming the first player in history with more strikeouts than his batting average. And yet, Reynolds has 13 runs of value over a replacement cornerman. How is that? Thirty-two homers, 83 walks and decent fielding at a tough defensive position mean he's worth abiding the futility while enjoying the patience and power.

2. How good is Jason Heyward? Adonis hit .278/.394/.457 in his rookie year, with great plate savvy, speed and defense. Most notably: he's 21. It's hard to overstate how significant that is. He should be a junior in college, ready to be drafted and begin next season in Double-A. Instead, he's among the 100 best ballplayers on the planet.

In Sammy Sosa's first year, a few months younger than Heyward is now, his Major League education scored out at .257/.303/.366. I remember reading a reflection by Bill James that I can't find, in which he noted that Sosa's rookie performance projected to a magnificent career, and gave him a one-third chance of achieving Hall of Fame status. Sammy was a replacement-level player that year. Heyward is worth 32 runs more than a replacement player. If he continues to grow (in baseball terms, that is. At 6'4" 220, growing his frame would be scary) he's an A-Rodian cinch for Cooperstown. (ARod's age 21 rookie season: .358/.414/.631.)

3. Albert Pujols had a disappointing year, don't you think? He faded when the Cardinals swooned and fell out of the race. He binged and purged on NL pitching. He only hit .315, 18 points below his career mean. Consider in his place, this guy: he had a .416 OBP and led the league in slugging with a .602 mark. He pounded 42 homers, most in the circuit and 39 doubles, drove in a league-leading 118 runs and scored a league-pacing 115. His 83 runs of VORP (value over replacement player) was tops and that doesn't include his sensational defense.

That is the margin by which Prince Albert is the king of baseball. His off-year is MVP quality, even if he's not the guy you'd actually select. (More on that in a subsequent post.) Earning the best player mantle in your career year is difficult enough; Pujols is worthy of the crown when he struggles.

4. How about that John Axford, huh? "Who?" you said. Fair enough. The Brewers' new closer posted an 8-2 2.53 line with 23 saves in 26 chances while yielding but a lonely home run. Why is Axford a mystery to you? Because last year he toiled for the Single-A Brevard County Manatees. He thrived as a cumbersome sea-faring mammal in '09 and thrived as a hops mixer in '10. Go figure.

5. In his first four full seasons, Jose Bautista hit 59 homers combined. This year he's at 54 and counting. He posted slugging averages of .420, .404, .411 and .408. This year, .625. He stole 13 bases but was nailed eight times. This year, 8 of 10. In his first four seasons, he was worth two wins over replacement -- total. This year 6.6.

I'll leave the steroid speculation to others. The question that most interests me is, what should we expect next year? We know that, on average, anomalies like him regress to the mean. That is, on average, a player with a career of .415 slugging averages who slugs .625 will fall halfway back, slugging .520. On average, he'll club 35 out and steal six of nine. But Jose Bautista isn't the average player; he's Jose Bautista, just as you're not the average family, with 2.3 children. While that's the midpoint of his range, he could also quite conceivably repeat 2010. That would be fun.

6. The Toronto Blue Jays have the fourth worst team batting average in baseball, the second fewest singles and the eighth-fewest walks. So naturally, they're second in total bases and ninth in runs scored. Led by a Bautista-infused 253 long balls, (Boston's second at 207) the Jays have posted the largest difference between slugging average and batting average...in history. At .207, it's double the level of the Mariners (.104), who stand at the precipice of historical run-scoring futility. It's a great game.

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