AL MVP: Him or Him or Him

The American League MVP race is nearly as wide open as Dick Vitale’s mouth. Unlike the Cy Young races, where there really is only one right answer in each league, reasonable people can disagree on who was the best performer this year.

First, the preliminaries:

1. The Most Valuable Player is the player who added the most wins to his team by hitting, base running and defense. Period.
2. The MVP’s credentials are largely unconnected to his team’s place in the standings. A player whose performance adds eight wins to his team’s total has eight wins of value, irrespective of whether they are wins 63-70 or wins 87-94.
3. Context matters. A lot. Hitting home runs at The Ballpark in Arlington is roughly 13% easier than in Safeco Field. Competing in the AL East is harder than in the AL West. There are homeless men in the NYC subway who can hit .300 with power and play first base. Catchers who do so are even rarer than a n African democracy.
4. Stats that don’t matter, don’t matter. If we can agree that runs scored and batted in are team events, then they have no place in the discussion. When we use stats, let’s stick to those that illuminate the issue, not confuse it.

At first glance, the race for MVP is between the batting champ, Ranger left-fielder Josh Hamilton and RBI king, Tigers first-baseman Miguel Cabrera. Hamilton was magnificent all year, hitting .360/.412/.636 and leading the league in OPS in a hitter-friendly park. Cabrera was no less impressive, swatting .328/.420/.622 in the more neutral Comerica. Hamilton contributed nothing during the 30 games he missed. Cabrera contributed in all but the final 12.

Cabrera has a small hitting edge, but Hamilton has a significant fielding advantage. He dazzles sufficiently in left to do stand-in work in center and he runs the bases well, swiping eight of nine. Cabrera carries an over-packed suitcase in his uniform, slowing him on the base paths and at first. Not for nothing, Cabrera grounded into 17 double plays, to 10 for Hamilton.

Before you choose from between these luminaries, Robinson Cano would like to make his case. While he only hit .320/.382/.535 in Fly Ball Heaven Stadium, Cano turns the double-play. He didn’t light it up like either Cabrera or Hamilton, but relative to a replacement player, he was the best in the league. Baseball Prospectus estimates he was worth 9.5 wins above a replacement second-sacker, compared to Hamilton’s 8.5 versus left-fielders and Cabrera’s 7.6 over first basemen.

All three, in my view, have their charms. If given a vote, I’d cast it for Cabrera. I don’t think Cano has hit enough to overtake the other two. The defensive zone rating metrics, of which I’m admittedly wary, don’t like Hamilton, casting a light shadow of doubt on his “value.” Moreover, Hamilton’s accomplishments are dependent on more than a fair share of grounders sneaking through holes. Ten fewer of them and his slash stats can’t compete with Cabrera’s. But I won’t knock anyone who casts their ballot for Cano or Hamilton. I like chocolate; perhaps they like vanilla or strawberry.

A note about three other players. Meteorite Blue Jay outfielder Jose Bautista slammed 54 homers and laid down a .262/.380/.621 line. Zounds. For the MVP though, he’s basically Hamilton/Cabrera lite. Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre (.321/.365/.553) and Rays’ third basemen Evan Longoria (.294/.372/.507) have high replacement value as hot-cornermen, but not enough to cover 100 fewer points of OPS, in my view. Believing the defensive hype about Longoria puts him squarely in the discussion, but I’m dubious about both defensive reputation and defensive metrics.

So who’s the AL MVP? No definitive answer. If the writers pick one of Hamilton, Cabrera and Cano, no complaints will be warranted.

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