Smelling A Rat

This is a scenario that's no longer possible, but it's fun to imagine. It's the kind of scam that Billy Beane used to perpetrate on the rest of baseball during the '90s, before front offices started realizing that scouts without stats -- that is, development without research --  is Laurel without Hardy.

The run-scoring environment in San Diego is so depressed that it distorts the value of hitters and pitchers. Wade LeBlanc, a skooch above average in the first half this year, sports a 3.30 ERA despite nearly four walks and just six strikeouts per nine frames. Catcher Nick Hundley has been one of the better backstops in the league this year, despite a .263 BA, 5 HR 26 RBI. His meager .337 OBA, with half his plate appearances coming at Petco, is actually a boon to the Pads.

Clinging to a tenuous lead in the NL West, how might GM Kevin Towers goose his lineup? How about by exploiting the reality of perception? If he could deal one of his red herring hurlers for a significant bat -- particularly in the outfield -- he could make his team significantly better.

The best trading partner would be one in a similarly dampened offensive environment, like the denizens of AT&T Park, Dodger Stadium or Citi Field. Their hitters' prowess is similarly understated by the numbers, so what looks like a fair trade statistically would vastly benefit San Diego. Or, they could upgrade their pitching by filching an under-rated arm from a homerdome like the BoB or Yankee Stadium.

This is what Beane did repeatedly for Oakland during the '90s, when only a handful of teams could distinguish Bill James from LeBron James. He swapped closers with big save numbers for hitters with low batting averages but high on-base percentages. He traded RBI collectors for pitchers with good walk-strikeout ratios and bad won-loss records. He cashed in speed merchant out-machines for discerning thieves with lower SB totals. In each case, the value of the former was overblown, the latter under-appreciated. (He did other things too, mostly involving payroll-depression, but that's not relevant here.)

A decade later, that just won't work. Every general manager in baseball understands the importance of context and luck, or has someone on staff who does. There isn't a team that can't see through that ruse. Today, the inefficiencies in the marketplace, which Beane drove a truck through in the 90s, are wafer-thin.

Still, it's a fun exercise. Imagine, for example, if Towers could induce Arizona to take LeBlanc and his .330 ERA for Ian Kennedy, mired in a 4-7, 4.12 season. Towers would know that at Bank One Ballpark, where strikeouts go to die and home runs live like kings, Kennedy and his eight Ks per nine are a highly valuable commodity.

Alas, at least for San Diegans (and Tijuanans), the baseball consumer protection board prohibits this sort of fraud. Front offices smell rats like this a mile away, even if their fans can't.

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